Business loan and equipment finance expectations continue to rise; commercial mortgage demand rebounds
Broker sentiment in Australia’s commercial lending sector has remained robust, with expectations for business loans and equipment finance showing continued growth, according to new research from Agile Market Intelligence.
The firm’s latest Broker Pulse: Commercial Lending report, which analyses broker outlooks across business loans, commercial mortgages, and equipment finance, found that forward-looking demand expectations have increased, particularly for unsecured business lending and equipment finance.
The business loan index has stayed above +44 for 11 straight months, reaching a peak of +57 in April 2025. May’s index was +56, with a majority of brokers anticipating higher demand compared to any period prior to December. Since November 2024, more than half of brokers have expected demand to rise, while fewer than 3% have forecast a decline in any month since mid-2024.
The commercial lending report suggests that stable business loan expectations point to a consistent market for unsecured and working capital lending, with brokers remaining confident in small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) borrowing activity. This trend may be influenced by refinancing requirements or strategic reinvestment.
“We’re seeing a consistent uplift in demand for working capital and short-term funding,” said Michael Johnson (pictured right), director at Agile Market Intelligence. “SMEs are clearly prioritising liquidity and planning ahead, not just reacting to pressure.”
Commercial mortgage sentiment has also improved, with the index rising from +16 in July 2024 to +54 in April 2025. The largest monthly increase was recorded between March and April, with a gain of +21. Although the index softened to +42 in May, it remains well above the average for the past 11 months. More than half of brokers have consistently expected demand to remain steady, and negative sentiment has stayed below 10% in most months.
The findings indicate renewed confidence in the commercial property sector, with brokers expecting higher lending volumes, possibly due to stabilising market conditions or property yields.
“Commercial property is cyclical but brokers are clearly seeing signs of movement,” Johnson said. “A more stable rate environment may be unlocking previously stalled deals.”
Asset finance sentiment has also accelerated, with the index rising from +13 in July 2024 to +48 in May 2025. Readings remained above +45 from January to February 2025, dipped, and then recovered in May. The May figure is near the top of the 11-month range, although about 15% of brokers expect declines in this category.
Expectations for equipment and asset finance are trending upward, pointing to increased capital investment among businesses. The report notes that this growth may be linked to easing supply constraints, fleet upgrades, or broader digital transformation initiatives.
“Capital investment is picking up across the board,” Johnson said. “Equipment finance is often the first to move when businesses start spending again.”
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