Broader insights into economic outlook to support policy decisions
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand – Te Pūtea Matua will publish the first results of its new Tara-ā-Umanga Business Expectations Survey (BES) on May 21, offering a fresh source of data ahead of the central bank’s upcoming Monetary Policy Statement on May 28.
Unlike the existing Survey of Expectations, which has focused on forecasters and industry leaders since 1987, the BES draws on input from several hundred businesses of varying sizes and sectors across New Zealand. This broader base enables the Reserve Bank to present a more representative snapshot of business sentiment and inflation expectations.
The launch follows a development period that included public consultations, pilot surveys, and methodological testing. The Reserve Bank confirmed that a new data table—Table M15—will be made available as part of the release. It will include breakdowns by business size and industry, population estimates, and a background note to guide interpretation of the results.
Although the BES represents a significant expansion in the Reserve Bank’s expectations data, officials say that further observations over time will be needed to assess how the results relate to inflation outcomes.
“We anticipate that the results of this survey will become key statistical series used by central banks, researchers, financial institutions and commentators,” the Reserve Bank said.
The survey forms part of the Reserve Bank’s broader efforts to strengthen its data foundations following its 2022 review into the formulation and implementation of monetary policy. That review identified the need for improved data to support decision-making, particularly around how expectations influence price- and wage-setting behaviour.
In a separate update, the Reserve Bank also began publishing two new daily data series from May 12, 2025 on Table B2. These include the Overnight Deposit Rate, which reflects the interest ESAS account holders earn for overnight balances, and the Overnight Reverse Repo Rate, the rate charged to borrow funds through the central bank’s overnight lending facility. Such additions aim to improve transparency and provide greater insight into how monetary policy is transmitted through wholesale interest rates in New Zealand markets.
