Asian communities set to make up one-third of population, says Stats NZ
By 2048, Stats NZ projects that about one in three New Zealanders will identify with Asian ethnicities – up sharply from 19% in 2023.
This shift signals a major change in the future homebuyer market for mortgage advisers, highlighting the need to understand and serve increasingly diverse client needs as Asian communities expand rapidly across the country.
Within this group, those identifying with Indian ethnicities are projected to rise from 7% in 2023 to around 12% in 2048, while those identifying with Chinese ethnicities are projected to increase from 6% to around 8%.
Stats NZ also expects above-average growth among Māori, Pacific, and Middle Eastern/Latin American/African (MELAA) populations over the next two decades, continuing recent demographic trends.
In contrast, the population identifying with European or other (including New Zealander) is projected to remain at around 3.5 million people.
“Our ethnic populations are changing at different rates because of a combination of different age structures, birth and death rates, and patterns of migration,” population estimates and projections spokesperson Victoria Treliving said in a media release.
Shifts across ethnic groups
The Māori share of the population is projected to increase from 18% in 2023 to around 20% in 2048. Pacific peoples are expected to increase from 9% to around 11%, while the MELAA population is likely to double from 2% to around 4%.
“The ‘European or other’ ethnic population is the only major ethnic group projected to decrease as a proportion of New Zealand’s population,” Treliving said. “This dropped from 79% in 2001 to 67% in 2023 and is projected to drop to around 52% in 2048.”
Because people often identify with more than one ethnicity, the proportions are non-additive and total more than 100%. In the 2023 Census, 15% of people identified with multiple ethnicities, a proportion expected to grow, especially among younger people.
Young population more diverse
Ethnic proportions vary significantly by age, with younger groups showing more diversity.
“About two-thirds of children identified with European ethnicities in 2023, but a growing proportion are likely to identify with other ethnicities by 2048,” Treliving said.
Among those aged under 15, projections show:
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Māori children rising from 28% in 2023 to around 31% in 2048
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Asian children increasing from 20% to around 34%
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Indian children from 7% to around 14%
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Pacific children from 15% to around 19%
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MELAA children from 2% to around 5%
Ageing across all groups
The projections also highlight that all ethnic populations will see more people aged 65 years and over.
For the European or other population, the 65+ share is expected to increase from 20% in 2023 to around 29% in 2048. Among the Chinese population, the proportion aged 65+ is projected to rise sharply from 12% to around 22%.
“Across all ethnic populations, this ageing is driven by lower fertility rates over time,” Treliving said. “Migration and increasing life expectancy also contribute to ageing.”
Why the projections matter
Stats NZ said these 2023-base projections provide insight into long-term demographic shifts to assist with planning and policy. Updated subnational projections will be released over the coming months.
Demographic shifts driving new opportunities for mortgage advisers
New Zealand’s rapidly growing and diversifying Asian and minority populations will reshape the housing market, creating new opportunities and challenges for mortgage advisers.
Understanding these demographic trends enables advisers to tailor their services, build cultural competency, and capture emerging demand among first-home buyers and property investors from these expanding communities.
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