Latest data shows FHB strength, movers cautious, investors rising
New Zealand’s housing market is undergoing a clear reshaping, with first-home buyers maintaining their strongest position in two decades while movers remain at record lows.
The Cotality NZ Monthly Housing Chart Pack – August 2025 shows first-home buyers (FHBs) accounted for 27% of activity in July, well above the long-term average of 21–22%. Movers – existing owner-occupiers selling and rebuying – are operating at levels last seen during the Global Financial Crisis.
By contrast, mortgaged multiple property owners (MMPOs) have lifted to 25% of transactions, back in line with their historic norms.
BNZ dubs 2025 the “Year of the Refix,” with falling rates from widespread mortgage repricing helping boost first-home buyer and investor activity.
The latest RBNZ decision, a 4-2 vote for a 25bp cut to 3%, also signalled a clear downwards bias, with economists expecting the cash rate to fall further toward 2.5% next year. This outlook is providing added confidence to buyers and investors re-entering the market.
FHBs surge, movers lag
Cotality NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson (pictured) said the data highlights a significant composition shift.
“What we’re seeing is a marked composition shift,” Davidson said. “First-home buyers are holding their strongest position in two decades, taking advantage of lower property values compared to the peak, access to KiwiSaver for at least part of their deposit, and the banks’ low-deposit lending allowances.”
“On the other hand, movers remain quieter than normal as affordability constraints linger and the challenges of high transaction costs and uncertainty roll on too, whether that’s due to jobs or the economy more broadly.”
First-home buyers capitalising on softer values
National house values are still around 17% below their peak and have remained broadly flat through 2025, with the Cotality Home Value Index unchanged since December 2024.
Davidson said this has created opportunities for new entrants.
“Conditions are tough for many households, but for buyers looking to enter the market for the first time, softer prices and reasonable access to credit have created a window of opportunity for the next generation to secure a property,” he said. “As a result, we’re seeing both the share and raw number of FHB deals rising.”
Movers at GFC-era lows
Movers’ market share has fallen to its lowest since 2009. Even as sales volumes nationally rose about 5% year-on-year in July, movers have remained reluctant.
“Many potential movers seem reluctant to take the leap, potentially because they’re uncertain about their ability to get a timely sale and a strong price for the existing home before they can start to ponder the next one,” Davidson said.
“It’s a dynamic that can suppress sales volumes and have a dampening effect on confidence across the whole market.”
Investors re-enter the market
The August Chart Pack also revealed a steady rebound in MMPO activity, climbing from 21% of transactions in mid-2024 to 25% in July.
“The return to 100% mortgage interest deductibility has eased the tax bills, and lower mortgage rates have reduced the cashflow top-ups needed to hold an investment,” Davidson said.
“That has shifted the balance for many landlords, allowing them to re-engage in the market and for newer investors giving them the incentive to build a portfolio in more favourable conditions.”
Sales, listings, and credit conditions
Sales volumes have now risen in 25 of the past 27 months, though activity has only just returned to more ‘normal’ levels after the trough of 2022–23. New listings are tracking at typical levels, and stock on market is beginning to fall.
Davidson said credit conditions remain a key filter for transactions, despite lower mortgage rates.
“Lower mortgage rates have supported buyer demand, but the weak labour market and subdued economy are offsetting factors. Credit conditions remain an important filter on who can and can’t transact,” he said.
He noted that around two-thirds of mortgages are fixed and due to reprice in the next 12 months, with many households set to see lower repayments as rates fall – potentially freeing up capacity for new borrowing.
Outlook into spring
Davidson expects the current buyer composition trends to persist through 2025.
“The composition of buyers is arguably just as important as the headline sales numbers,” he said. “Movers may continue to sit below their historical share, but they still drive a large portion of transactions in many areas. For investors, improving conditions point to a consistent level of activity and stable market share.
“And while first home buyers won’t stay at record highs indefinitely, even a smaller slice of a busier market would still see them active in greater numbers.”
The Cotality NZ Monthly Housing Chart Pack – August 2025 provides the latest breakdown of sales, listings, buyer classification, property values, rental dynamics, and credit flows, as well as selected economic indicators.
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