CBRE valuers report flatter NZ house prices and cooler demand
New Zealand’s housing market is looking more balanced but less buoyant, with CBRE valuers reporting stable prices, dominant first-home buyers, and softer demand expectations heading into late 2026.
For mortgage advisers, that means more selective buyers, fewer forced compromises, and a premium on clean, “move‑in ready” stock when assessing borrowing capacity and negotiating mortgage rates.
CBRE’s Q1 2026 Residential Valuations Property Market Survey draws on 36 valuers across the country and was carried out in mid‑March, around two weeks after the latest flare‑up in the Middle East. Compared with a year ago, valuers describe a calmer, more stable market, but one where confidence about future demand has eased.
Balanced demand, but clear regional differences
Nationally, most respondents now characterise their local markets as balanced rather than clearly favouring buyers or sellers. Only a small increase in valuers reported softer market conditions between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, and previously weaker regions are now more often described as moderate.
Some areas still lean towards buyers. As one Manawatu valuer put it, conditions are “generally, weighted in favour of a buyer's market.” Others, such as Canterbury and parts of the South Island, continue to show pockets of seller strength, helped by limited listings.
First-home buyers dominate, investors step back
Across almost all regions, first-home buyers are the most active group. In the latest survey, 95% of valuers listed them among their key buyers. That reflects a shift away from investors, with the share of valuers citing investor activity dropping sharply since late 2025.
On the ground, one Taranaki valuer observed that “the most active buyer group is first-home buyers.” Several respondents noted that these borrowers are discerning, favouring well‑located, renovated homes over do‑ups.
An Auckland valuer said: “Well-presented homes that provide the full package are selling fast and at good value levels. Unrenovated properties, or homes that need work, are taking longer to move.”
Recent market data back this up. Cotality NZ’s Monthly Housing Chart Pack shows national sales volumes in February were 6.8% lower than a year earlier, following a 7.8% fall in January, while first-home buyers accounted for around 27% of purchases nationwide and about 30% in Auckland across the first two months of 2026.
Prices mostly stable, outlook softer but not dire
Two key messages for brokers from CBRE’s valuers: most expect house prices to hold roughly steady, and very few see big moves either way. A slim majority anticipate flat values over the next 12 months, with a sizeable minority expecting gains of up to 5% and only a handful tipping small declines.
Earlier in the year, ANZ had already signalled another subdued phase, cutting its 2026 house price inflation forecast to 2% from 5% as higher rate expectations and election uncertainty weighed on sentiment.
Lifestyle and vacant land values are also seen as broadly stable, although recent cost pressures and development feasibility issues remain a headwind for large projects.
Where the tone has shifted most is around future demand. More valuers now think demand will simply track sideways, and a growing minority expect it to ease slightly over 2026.
One Northland valuer commented: “I expect the soft market to continue and would be surprised if house prices in the local area increase by more than 5% in that time.”
At the same time, the Reserve Bank is signalling caution but not panic on interest rates. In a recent speech on the Iran conflict, Governor Anna Breman said we are likely to see “higher headline inflation over the near term, and somewhat weaker growth momentum.”
For mortgage advisers, that points to an OCR that is on hold for now, but fixed mortgage rates that may still be buffeted by offshore markets.
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