Sales activity picks up but prices largely flat
New analysis from Cotality’s Mapping the Market shows New Zealand’s housing market remained subdued in the three months to September, with sales activity slowly rising but property values holding steady.
Cotality NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson (pictured) said the outlook is constrained by broader economic weakness.
“With affordability returning back closer to normal levels, listing volumes starting to decline, mortgage rate falls increasingly passing through to existing borrowers as they reprice onto lower rates, and the unemployment rate set to fall a bit next year, conditions seem to be building for modest house price growth in 2026 – but don’t expect a boom,” Davidson said in a media release.
Affordable suburbs post strongest gains
Standalone houses saw mixed results. Over the quarter, 56% of suburbs (1,484 of 2,661) recorded declines in values, though two-fifths of these were marginal falls of less than 1%. By contrast, 44% of suburbs posted stable or rising values.
In Auckland, houses in suburbs such as Takapuna and Clevedon dropped by nearly 4%, while modest gains of at least 2-3% were seen in Evansdale (Dunedin), Cashmere (Christchurch), Matua (Tauranga), and Makara (Wellington).
Some affordable areas outperformed, with values jumping more than 5% in suburbs including Cobden (Grey District), Springs Junction (Buller), and Alton (South Taranaki), where median house prices ranged from $325,000 to $409,000.
Townhouse declines tilt to North Island
Flats and townhouses followed a similar pattern, with 54% of suburbs (579 of 1,080) recording declines in the quarter and 46% seeing stability or growth.
The steepest falls of at least 5% were concentrated in lower-priced North Island markets such as Otangarei (Whangarei), Taihape, Inglewood, and Paihia.
But there were also 19 suburbs with townhouse value gains of 5% or more, including Queenstown Hill, Brighton (Dunedin), Whangarei, and Huntington (Hamilton).
Patchiness remains the theme
Davidson noted the results highlight uneven conditions.
“There’s clearly still patchiness in the market, but this fits with the overall picture that national median values have drifted slightly lower in recent months,” he said.
“While it’s difficult to generalise across the various trends at a suburb level, there is certainly some resilience among standalone houses and townhouses in lower priced areas, which will tend to have affordability on their side.
“Overall, property values remain sluggish for now, but conditions may be turning towards some growth in 2026, albeit likely muted,” the Cotality economist said.
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