Auckland, Wellington lead declines in national property values
Property values in New Zealand edged down by -0.2% in August, marking the fifth consecutive monthly fall, according to Cotality NZ’s latest Home Value Index.
National values have dropped -0.6% so far in 2025, erasing gains from late last year and early this year. The nationwide median now stands at $809,113, still -17.2% below the January 2022 peak and the lowest since August 2023.
“Given the continued economic weakness, further increases in unemployment, and subdued confidence, it’s no surprise that property values are treading water,” said Cotality NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson (pictured above). “While the downturn after the post-COVID boom has now petered out, steadier growth has yet to materialise.”
First-home buyers and investors step in
“What might be discouraging for property owners and sellers is beneficial for those buyers on the other side of the coin. In particular, we’re seeing continued strength from first home buyers, and a rising market share for mortgaged multiple property owners, too,” Davidson said.
“The psychology and mindset around house prices can change quickly, and we’ve seen that before. But right now, caution is the dominant theme, and with unemployment not expected to be at its peak just yet, it’s unlikely that many people will be rushing out to bid up house prices aggressively over the rest of 2025.”
Auckland and Wellington see further declines
Auckland’s values fell -0.5% in August, with uniform declines across most sub-markets.
Over the past three months, Auckland sub-markets have dropped between -1.3% and -2.0%, and all remain -20% to -25% below previous peaks. Wellington’s region was also subdued, with Kāpiti Coast and Upper Hutt down -0.6%, Porirua down -0.3%, and Wellington City flat but still down -3.4% over the past year, Cotality data showed.
“The stock of available listings around Tāmaki Makaurau has begun to drift downwards, but it’s starting from a high level, and the latest property value figures re-emphasise that it’s still a buyer’s market in our largest city,” Davidson said.
Regional markets mixed, outlook remains cautious
Some provincial areas like Nelson, Invercargill, and New Plymouth saw values rise by at least +0.5%, but others, including Gisborne, Hastings, and Napier, recorded falls of -0.5% or more.
“We shouldn’t get carried away with any flow-on effects from NZ’s two-speed economy into provincial property outperformance, not least because some of the regions have their own challenges in terms of losing young people overseas during this current phase of strong migrant departures,” Davidson said.
Outlook: Conflicting forces ahead
Looking ahead, Davidson said the final months of the year may continue to reflect the “conflicting forces” theme seen throughout 2025.
“The support from lower mortgage rates, but the headwinds of a weak economy and elevated levels of listings on the market,” he said. “Property sales volumes have basically ‘normalised’ and should rise further in 2026 as the lagged effects of lower mortgage rates continue to flow through... But a fresh boom doesn’t look likely, especially given the debt-to-income ratio rules and government measures to ramp up housing supply.”
Read the full Cotality report for more information and details.
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