“They just don’t seem to be falling in love with what they actually find once they start exploring”
Off-plan homes are often marketed as a solution to New Zealand’s housing supply challenges, especially for first-home buyers in high-growth urban areas. But Squirrel research suggests that while the interest is there, conversion remains weak.
A study conducted by TRA on behalf of Squirrel found that 82% of people likely to buy a home within the next three years are open to buying off-plan. But only 32% are seriously considering it. That’s a 50-point drop between initial openness and genuine intent. Squirrel recently dove deeper into these statistics on Live at the Nut Bar with managing adviser Nathan Miglani (pictured above) and TRA qualitative lead Sarah Hahn.
“The thing that really stood out to us was the drop-off in the conversion funnel,” Hahn said.
“We see eight out of ten people who are likely to buy a house in the next three years open to buying off-plan, but then only three out of ten are considering it strongly. We’re losing people somewhere on that journey, they just don’t seem to be falling in love with what they actually find once they start exploring.”
Buyers want input, but not from scratch
The data shows that buyers are drawn to the idea of customisation. They want influence over layout, finishes, and interior feel, but without being expected to make every architectural decision themselves.
“Most people wouldn’t actually trust themselves to design an entire house,” Hahn said. “We’re not architects, we’re not experts, and we maybe don’t even trust our own taste that much. But everyone wants to weigh in on some details on what that home actually looks like, and it’s really exciting people to have that opportunity and curated sense of selection.”
Trust in delivery is also a key concern, and it keeps many buyers from committing. TRA’s report noted that buyers just don’t have confidence that the finished product will be what was promised, or even that it’s going to be built.
“At the end of the day, buyers just don’t have confidence that the finished product is going to live up to what’s been promised, or even that it’s actually going to be built,” the TRA report said. “They’re essentially going in blind.”
Miglani said many developments in the post-COVID building wave have been carried out by small or under-resourced outfits with unclear track records – another point against the reputation of buying off-plan. With this in mind, having a registered master builder’s warranty of 10 years is important, as well as choosing a well-respected and established developer.
“There’s a limited number of people involved in the development space,” Miglani said. “You’ve still got the likes of bigger groups, so having a big name gives some comfort to people. A lot of people go with those established developers with more of a track record.”
He also recommended that buyers push for clarity before signing.
“Buyers should be asking, do you actually have a building consent?” he said.
“A lot of developers start selling products when they don’t even have resource consents. If one of my clients is buying a property off-plan, I would probably advise them to sign the contract when they have the building consent.
“Knowing the development space so well over the last few years, it can take a good three to six months to get one. If you’re having a baby, want to move in for the new year, etc. – that certainty is quite important for people.”
First-home buyers still lead the market, but need more reassurance
Despite the trust gap, first-home buyers continue to make up a substantial share of off-plan activity. In Q2 2025, they accounted for 26-27% of all purchases nationally, and up to 36% in some parts of the country such as Wellington.
This demographic tends to be more price-sensitive and time-bound, meaning that trust, transparency, and the ability to visualise a final product matter even more. The drop-off from 82% openness to just 32% active consideration suggests these concerns are not being met.
