Mortgage market already seeing surge in refi enquiries
A cash rate increase from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) today could set off a swift, if short-lived, surge in refinancing, with Equifax data pointing to how quickly borrowers move when a tightening cycle begins.
Equifax executive general manager Moses Samaha (pictured) reflected on previous tightening cycles to offer a glimpse of what could be in store, if, as all major banks predict, the RBA’s Monetary Policy Board opts to knock the cash rate back up to 3.85%.
“In 2022, the reaction to the first rate hike was immediate. As soon as rates rose in May 2022, refinance volumes lifted 25% compared to the previous month (April 2022),” noted Samaha.
Mortgage holders moved quickly to lock in rates in anticipation of further hikes down the line, “and that activity stayed roughly 15% above the April 2022 baseline for the following six months”.
Equifax’s latest figures indicate that refinancing momentum has already been building.
The credit bureau reported a 9.6% increase in refinancing enquiries in the December 2025 quarter compared with the same period a year earlier. At the same time, purchase activity strengthened, with enquiries from first-home buyers up 11.2% year-on-year in the quarter.
Older borrowers driving upswing
Equifax’s data shows homeowners aged 46 and over recorded a 12% year-on-year increase in refinancing enquiries in the December quarter, the first time since 2023 that this cohort has been at the front of the pack.
Borrowers aged 35 to 46 were close behind, with refinancing demand rising 11.1% over the same period. By contrast, the 26–35 age group logged a more modest 5.4% increase in enquiries.
“We’re seeing refinancing demand being driven by older demographics as mortgages stretch further into later life,” said Samaha. “As Australians are taking longer to enter the market, and as mortgage sizes are growing, mortgage debt can’t be considered just a young family’s burden - Gen X and pre-retirees are still actively refinancing.”
Samaha added: “Based on this trend, we could expect to see Australians carrying mortgage debt much later into their lifespans and careers than previous generations.”
Regionally speaking, refinancing enquiries in Queensland rose 14.5% year-on-year in the December quarter, outpacing all other states.
New South Wales followed with a 10.6% increase in refi enquiries over the quarter. Western Australia (7.6%), South Australia (6.9%) and Victoria (6.7%) also posted solid growth, while Tasmania recorded a 4.3% uplift.
Non-banks surge as borrowers shop around
The data also highlights a clear shift in where refinancing demand is being directed.
Large non-bank lenders recorded a 34% year-on-year rise in refinancing enquiries in the December quarter, far outstripping the growth seen by major banks.
Big four banks posted a 3.9% increase in enquiries, while their subsidiaries saw a 7.7% uplift. Second-tier banks registered a 13% rise.
The RBA is expected to announce its decision this afternoon, 1.30pm AEST.
