Affordability pressures linger despite firmer prices and rising activity
Average home values across New Zealand were unchanged in the three months to the end of November, according to the latest QV House Price Index, and are virtually flat year-on-year – down just 0.1%.
The national average value is now $907,274, which is 13.4% below the January 2022 peak of $1,047,132.
Across the country, the proportion of areas experiencing value growth has continued to rise. Of the 112 territorial authorities measured, 71 recorded increases this quarter and 41 saw declines — meaning almost two-thirds of the country is now seeing values edge upward.
That stabilisation is consistent with the latest NZHL Property Report by economist Tony Alexander, which shows more agents now reporting price rises, buyer sentiment shifting from fear of over‑paying (FOOP) toward fear of missing out (FOMO), and national values in separate Cotality data still about 17% below their early‑2022 peak despite firmer conditions.
QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush (pictured) said residential values have entered a consolidation phase, masking significant variation beneath the surface.
“While this stability might suggest a pause in the market, the picture underneath is far more varied — and for many households, ongoing affordability and cost-of-owning pressures remain acute,” Rush said.
“At a regional level, growth and decline diverge sharply. Some centres are seeing value gains — notably Christchurch, Invercargill, Queenstown, Gisborne, Nelson, , and Hamilton — while the greater Auckland region has recorded a further decline, continuing a run of recent months that exerts downward pressure on the national average.
"In places where values are flat or moderating, the relative stability offers a welcome window for potential buyers. Yet affordability remains elusive for many."
She said broader economic conditions are still weighing on households.
“Over the past five years, the cost of living — as measured by CPI inflation — has increased by around 21%, placing additional pressure on household budgets. Wages in many sectors have not kept pace with inflation, meaning many households now have less real income available to save for a deposit or to comfortably service a mortgage,” Rush said.
Mortgage costs remain elevated versus the ultra-low levels of the early 2020s.
“Even with recent reductions, current lending rates continue to sit well above those experienced earlier in the decade, raising the barrier to home ownership and adding pressure to those maintaining existing mortgages.”
Rush said rising ownership costs are also being felt by existing homeowners.
“The cost of owning and maintaining a property has increased, with rises in council rates, insurance premiums, trades and building costs, renovation expenses, and development contributions," the QV spokesperson said.
"These ongoing expenses mean many households are having to prioritise carefully, with some deferring improvements or considering downsizing as they get older. Mortgagee sales have become more common during 2025, particularly in Auckland and Wellington.”
Rush said these forces are reshaping the residential landscape.
“Values are no longer rising rapidly, but the cost of entering or remaining in the housing market remains high," she said.
"For prospective buyers, property continues to represent a significant financial commitment. For homeowners, maintenance and ongoing costs continue to bite. And for the residential sector, we may see a slower, more gradual period ahead in which affordability, economic pressures and regional differences play a larger role than headline value growth.”
Auckland: declines slow as activity picks up at the top end
The rate of decrease across the wider Auckland region slowed from 2.2% in the October quarter to 1.1% in the three months to the end of November. The average value across the region is now $1,201,504 – 3.0% lower than a year ago and 20.8% below the 2022 peak.
It was a mixed picture across the super city. North Shore values jumped 2.4% and Rodney rose 0.6%, while Papakura (-3.6%), Manukau (-2.4%) and Waitākere (-2.2%) saw the largest declines.
“The Auckland residential property market has clearly improved over the past four to six weeks, with more activity, stronger prices, and noticeably more prospective buyers out there looking,” QV Auckland registered valuer Hugh Robson said.
The higher-value segment – especially properties between $2 million and $3.5 million – has shown the most pronounced uplift.
“That part of the market has clearly gained momentum,” Robson said.
He said increased listings are also helping sentiment heading into summer, even though quarterly averages still show a softening.
“Lower interest rates and increased housing supply are major factors influencing this shift,” Robson said. “And while many bank economists are predicting steady, if not dramatic, house price increases through 2026, the recent lift in activity suggests the market is already starting to turn a corner.”
Wellington: Elevated stock and soft sentiment weigh on values
Values for the greater Wellington region decreased 0.8% over the past three months and 3.6% year-on-year, with the average home value now $808,649.
In Wellington City, the larger falls seen earlier in the year have continued to stabilise, with values dipping just 0.5% in the three months to the end of November. Values there remain down 5.0% year-on-year at $911,632.
Within the city, Wellington – Eastern suburbs saw the largest quarterly fall, down 4.0% to an average of $1,004,682. Meanwhile, values rose in Wellington City – North and West by 1.8% (to $841,591) and 0.8% (to $1,019,088) respectively.
“We will likely see a high spillover into the new year and even more stock coming onto the market in January and February, which will continue to give buyers plenty of choice and constrain value growth,” QV Wellington registered valuer and senior consultant David Cornford said.
“The economic and employment mood in Wellington remains subdued and this is impacting the property market. A relatively high number of people are leaving the city for employment opportunities elsewhere, and fewer are relocating to replace them. Many of those departing are putting their homes on the market, adding to already elevated stock levels.”
Christchurch: Steady outperformer with moderate growth
Christchurch’s average home value rose 2.1% this quarter to $786,671, now 3.1% higher than a year ago and 1.3% above its 2022 peak. Selwyn increased 1.4% this quarter (2.0% annually) to $857,574, and Waimakariri rose 0.6% (2.7% annually) to $728,212.
“Days to sell have decreased, listings are up, and auction activity remains solid,” QV Christchurch professional services southern manager Michael Tohill said.
Tohill noted Christchurch tends to be more stable than other main centres, partly because it experienced more moderate value growth during the previous peak. The $1–$2 million segment remains active, while townhouse values face pressure due to high supply and new builds in the pipeline.
Regional markets: Southern strength and Waikato momentum
Southern and regional markets once again delivered some of the strongest gains this quarter, though several North Island centres also recorded steady growth.
Invercargill led the main urban areas with quarterly growth of 3.6%, followed by Queenstown at 2.9%, Gisborne at 2.3%, and Nelson and Rotorua both at 2.0%. North Island gains were also evident in Whanganui (1.9%), Whangārei (1.3%), Palmerston North (1.0%) and Napier (0.4%), while Hamilton rose 1.4% and Tauranga 0.1%. Dunedin remained unchanged.
Among smaller districts, the strongest value increases this quarter were recorded in Carterton (4.6%), Waitomo (4.4%), Southland (4.1%), Waimate (4.0%) and Hamilton – South-East (3.7%). The most significant quarterly declines were seen in Wairoa (-16.2%), Hamilton – Central (-5.6%) and Ōpōtiki (-4.2%).
“We’ve seen a modest but noticeable lift in activity across Hamilton over the spring period," QV Hamilton registered valuer Marshall Wu said.
"New listings have increased, giving buyers more choice, and easing interest rates are contributing to renewed interest from first-home buyers and some investors. Well-priced properties are attracting good attention, and we’re seeing momentum build in several suburbs.”
QV Invercargill registered valuer Andrew Ronald said Southland’s performance continues to reflect a well-balanced and active local market.
“Southland remains steady, with strong buyer interest across a wide range of price points," Ronald said. :Yields continue to appeal to investors, and out-of-town purchasers are an ongoing feature of the market. Listings remain relatively tight, which is helping to sustain upward pressure on values.”
Across much of the country, regional markets are showing renewed resilience, supported by improved affordability, rising new listings and increasing buyer confidence following recent interest rate reductions. While some districts continue to experience softer conditions, the broader pattern points toward gradual stabilisation, with more areas now transitioning from decline into steady or modest value growth.
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