QV data shows housing softness despite spring listing surge
New Zealand’s housing market is showing a mixed picture of correction and recovery, with QV data revealing further value declines while Trade Me and ASB report early signs of renewed buyer confidence.
The latest QV House Price Index shows average home values nationwide fell 1.1% in the September quarter to $900,521 — now 0.2% lower year-on-year and 14% below the January 2022 peak.
However, fresh September data from Trade Me Property shows the market may be finding its footing, with the national average asking price climbing 1.3% month-on-month to $835,350 — the first sign of a spring rebound in buyer demand.
Falling rates and improved affordability lift confidence
QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said Auckland and Wellington continue to see the strongest value drops as the market correction extends.
“Auckland and Wellington continue to see the strongest value drops since the previous nationwide peak as the market correction from the post-COVID boom extends,” Rush said.
She added that lower mortgage rates are gradually improving affordability.
“The Reserve Bank’s recent cut to the official cash rate will gradually provide relief to borrowers and could help lift confidence in the housing market over spring and summer.”
“Decreasing home values and lower mortgage rates continue to improve affordability in many areas across the country, making it a little easier for Kiwis to get on or move up the property ladder.”
Trade Me Property’s Gavin Lloyd said Auckland’s market, in particular, is showing renewed strength.
“It’s a welcome sign of life for the Tāmaki Makaurau market,” Lloyd said. “Not only are we seeing Auckland back in the million-dollar club, year-on-year demand is strong, up more than 12% on last year, and ahead of supply which is up 6%.”
Rush cautioned, however, that broader economic pressures remain a headwind.
“Lower mortgage rates may encourage a modest rise in activity, but any rebound in prices is likely to remain constrained by the broader economic recession, cost-of-living pressures, rising unemployment, and ongoing global uncertainty.”
Auckland values slide 2.5% as listings rise
Auckland’s average property value fell 2.5% in the September quarter to $1,193,994, now 2.9% lower than a year ago and 21.3% below the 2022 peak.
QV registered valuer Hugh Robson said listings remain plentiful, but demand is starting to lift.
“There is currently good supply of properties for sale across the city and real estate agents are reporting increased demand over the past few weeks,” Robson said.
“Whether this translates into a genuine spring uplift in values remains to be seen, with October and November set to confirm if any rise in sales prices occurs.”
Trade Me data also shows Auckland’s average asking price surged 3.7% in September — the largest monthly gain since January — led by strong lifts in Auckland City, Manukau, and Rodney.
Robson said the over-$3 million market remains subdued but falling mortgage rates could help boost serviceability for eligible buyers.
“Mortgage rates continue to fall, which could provide some support in the form of improved mortgage serviceability for buyers who have the required deposit and are looking to raise finance as we head into summer.”
Wellington, Christchurch, and southern markets show mixed results
Wellington values have fallen 26.7% since the January 2022 peak, with the current average at $837,583.
QV valuer David Cornford said the capital’s market is showing more activity after a quiet winter.
“We’re seeing more activity from flippers, particularly in the Hutt Valley, where buyers are purchasing rundown homes, completing quick renovations and on-selling to first-home buyers,” Cornford said.
“Interest rates have dropped significantly since their peak, which should lead to fewer distressed sales and less urgency among investors to offload properties.”
In contrast, Christchurch remains the most stable of the main centres, with values down just 0.4% in the quarter to $772,190, but still 1.9% higher year-on-year.
QV valuer Olivia Brownie said easing rates are supporting buyer confidence.
“More recently, mortgage rates have eased compared to previous highs, which is helping to support buyer confidence,” Brownie said.
“We are still seeing a larger proportion of first-home buyers active in the market, with strong demand in the mid- and lower-price brackets in well-positioned areas.”
South Island markets continue to outperform
Southern regions remain the country’s most resilient. Queenstown and Invercargill saw quarterly gains of 1.8% and 1.6% respectively, while Clutha and Mackenzie Districts recorded standout growth.
Trade Me also reported that Southland led the nation with a 9.7% annual increase in average asking price, followed by the West Coast (8.9%) and Otago (4.1%).
QV valuer Baylan Connelly said confidence is returning.
“It remains a buyer’s market, with purchasers still in a strong position to negotiate,” he said. “Demand is strongest for modern, well-maintained homes and new builds, which continue to attract multiple offers, while the lower quartile has softened more than the upper.”
ASB: More rate relief ahead
ASB’s latest Home Loan Rate Report reinforces the emerging optimism, showing that fixed mortgage rates between one- and two-year terms have fallen by up to 3% since 2022–23.
Senior Economist Chris Tennent-Brown said downward pressure on mortgages continues, with the Reserve Bank’s OCR now at 2.5% and forecast to ease again to 2.25% in November.
He added that while shorter-term rates could edge lower over 2025, “longer fixed terms are likely to stay near current levels or rise modestly if inflation pressures persist.”
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