Tourism booms while long-term population growth weakens
Visitor arrivals from Australia reached 1.48 million in the September 2025 year, up from 1.33 million the year before, Stats NZ data shows. This 12% annual rise marks the second-highest September year on record, behind only 2019.
“For September years, 2025 was the second highest for the number of visitor arrivals from Australia, after 2019,” international travel statistics spokesperson Bryan Downes (pictured left) said.
Downes said the lift coincided with more trans-Tasman flights and a Tourism New Zealand marketing push in early 2025. Additional routes included Cairns–Christchurch, Coolangatta–Hamilton, Coolangatta–Dunedin and Sydney–Hamilton.
Both the September month and quarter also hit record highs for Australian arrivals.
About one-quarter of all arrivals were New Zealand citizens – similar to 2019 – while Australia remains NZ’s largest visitor source. ABS data confirms New Zealand is the second-most visited destination for Australians, after Indonesia.
Holidaymakers fuel the surge
“Holidaymakers drove the growth in visitor numbers from Australia in the September 2025 year, followed by those visiting friends or relatives,” Downes said.
- 633,900 arrivals were holidaymakers – up 17%
- 582,000 came to visit friends or relatives – up 12%
Queensland leads state-by-state growth
“Among Australian states and territories, residents of Queensland contributed the most to visitor growth from Australia in the September 2025 year, up almost 65,000, or 18 percent,” Downes said.
Queensland’s 418,100 arrivals were a record for any year and continue a run of new highs. New South Wales remained the largest overall source of visitors, followed by Queensland and Victoria.
Net migration slows sharply as departures rise
New Zealand recorded a net migration gain of 12,400 in the September 2025 year – down sharply from 42,400 the year prior and the lowest September year gain since 2013 (excluding pandemic years).
Key figures:
- 138,900 migrant arrivals (down from 157,300)
- 126,400 migrant departures (up from 114,800)
- NZ-citizen departures hit a record 72,700, driving a net loss of 46,400
- 58% of NZ-citizen departures went to Australia
Migrants aged 18–30 made up 38% of all NZ-citizen departures.
Non-citizen migration steadies, but still below peak
Non-New Zealand citizens recorded a net gain of 58,800, slightly up from June’s low but below the 2024 year’s 87,300. The largest declines in net migration came from citizens of India and the Philippines, though both groups still recorded net gains.
Migration trends continue to reflect shifts in global labour markets, relative economic conditions, and immigration policy settings.
What this means for mortgage advisers
For brokers, the data signals a divergent outlook:
- Tourism-heavy regions may see stronger hospitality, retail, and short-stay accommodation demand
- Slowing net migration – especially the loss of younger New Zealanders – may soften housing demand in some centres
- Steady non-citizen inflows could help stabilise rental markets in high-demand cities.
The combination of booming visitor arrivals and easing long-term population growth will continue shaping buyer demand, rental pressures, and regional housing market dynamics heading into 2026.
To see the latest Stats NZ stats, read the articles, net migration gain of 12,400 and Australian visitor arrivals increase.
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