South Island leads, Christchurch nears house price peak, OneRoof and Valocity report
Christchurch house prices are nearing their post-COVID peak, with the average property value rising 1.4% in the three months to May 2025.
At $798,000, values are now just $4,000 below the June 2022 record of $802,000, according to OneRoof and Valocity data.
This comes amid rising buyer confidence and lifting sales volumes, though high stock and low urgency mean buyers still hold the advantage.
Capital gains slow in Auckland and Wellington
While Christchurch nears a full recovery, Auckland and Wellington property markets are lagging. Auckland is not expected to regain its post-COVID peak until late 2028, and Wellington could take until 2031, OneRoof reported.
Nationwide, house price growth remains flat. The OneRoof-Valocity House Value Index recorded a 0.3% increase in the three months to May and a -0.5% annual change, with the national average sitting at $969,000.
Southern strength: Queenstown and Otago shine
The South Island continues to lead the recovery. Queenstown-Lakes and Otago both posted growth of around 2% in the past quarter, while Canterbury climbed 1.1% to $797,000 – just $1,000 below its peak.
“Christchurch is definitely more affordable,” said Wayne Shum (pictured), Valocity senior research analyst. “During the boom, a lot of people in Auckland and Wellington thought, ‘In Christchurch, I'm buying a bigger house and a bigger section for less money.’”
North Island markets remain subdued
In contrast, North Island growth has been subdued. Auckland values dipped 0.2%, Wellington fell 0.7%, and Tauranga also declined by 0.7% in the three months to May. Hamilton’s values edged up just 0.4%.
Shum said Auckland’s weak growth is tied to lower net migration and high prices deterring rental investment. Wellington’s slowdown, he added, is driven by public sector job cuts and high rates.
First-home buyers dominate as market stays flat
Flat growth may be bad news for existing homeowners hoping for capital gains, but it’s good news for first-home buyers. This group remains the largest in the market, supported by falling interest rates and more than 40,000 listings on OneRoof.
Timeline to recovery varies by city
The report estimates recovery timelines based on Treasury’s forecast 5.6% annual price growth, with notable return-to-peak estimates including:
- New Zealand overall: June 2027
- Christchurch: July 2025
- Dunedin: July 2027
- Hamilton: November 2027
- Tauranga: June 2028
- Wellington: July 2031
Suburb trends: South Island suburbs surge
Of the 139 suburbs that reached or neared record values, all but six were in the South Island. Arrowtown saw the biggest dollar gain over the quarter (+$124,000), while Riverton/Aparima saw the biggest percentage jump (+6%).
Wellington suburbs suffer steep falls
Wellington dominated the list of falling suburbs. Crofton Downs dropped 7.4% over the last three months, and Wellington Central had the steepest annual drop at 21.5%.
In 11 Wellington suburbs, values are now below May 2020 levels, with Wellington Central and Oriental Bay down 20.8% and 9.5%, respectively.
