Forum says upzoning alone won’t fix housing crisis
Auckland’s next phase of housing reform must focus on more than rezoning land, experts say.
Speaking at the University of Auckland’s Asia-Pacific Housing Forum 2025, Associate Professor William Cheung (pictured) said future housing policies should be grounded in evidence, behavioural insight, and long-term social outcomes.
“The next phase of housing reform won’t be defined by how much land we can rezone, but by how we translate upzoning into long-term, equitable homes,” Cheung said.
Cheung, co-director of the Urban Analytics and City Science Research Beacon, said the forum was unanimous that upzoning is “the starting point, not the endpoint.” Success, he added, depends on aligning supply with social purpose and sustaining reforms beyond political cycles.
“Governments need to design frameworks that learn and adapt, rather than reset with every administration,” Cheung said. “This means treating housing not only as an economic sector but as a cornerstone of social well-being and environmental sustainability.”
The call for long-term, evidence-based reform comes as Auckland’s housing market steadies. Barfoot & Thompson reported the city’s median price rose 2.2% in October to $950,000, with managing director Peter Thompson saying prices are “stabilising around the $950,000 mark” as buyers remain cautious.
Lessons from Auckland’s zoning reforms
Associate Professor Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy, director of the Economic Policy Centre, said Auckland’s experience shows how zoning reform and state-led housing delivery can reinforce one another.
He pointed to the Auckland Unitary Plan (AUP), which upzoned land to enable both private and public developers to increase supply.
“The share of new housing by government-controlled institutions rose from 3.1% in the decade preceding the reform to 9.9% in the six years following — levels not seen since before the 1980s economic reforms,” he said.
Research indicates the reforms tripled the number of state-built dwellings and boosted long-term supply responsiveness.
Elham Bahmanteymouri, senior lecturer in urban planning, said upzoning alone won’t guarantee affordability.
“We must recognise the digital dimension of housing markets,” Bahmanteymouri, said. “Platforms like Airbnb can absorb part of the new supply created through upzoning, particularly in high-amenity areas.”
She called for greater data transparency and locally tailored regulation to ensure digital platforms contribute positively to affordability goals.
Auckland Council chief economist Gary Blick said the AUP has had a “transformative effect” on housing delivery.
“Widespread upzoning can be impactful,” Blick said, noting a clear shift toward townhouses and apartments.
He said the plan has upzoned around 75% of residential land, adding an estimated 21,800 more homes than would otherwise have been built.
“We are seeing more homes, and more of them closer to jobs and rapid transit,” Blick said.
Global perspectives: Balancing density and affordability
The forum drew parallels with housing challenges in Australia, South Korea, and Hong Kong.
Professor Chris Leishman of the University of South Australia said the “Auckland upzoning has become sort of famous — or perhaps infamous.”
“Some policymakers think they can ignore demand factors completely, upzone, and magically supply will increase and improve affordability. This ignores the realities of developer behaviour,” Leishman said.
Professor Hyojung Lee of the Seoul National University warned that upzoning may widen inequality.
“It really makes those who already own homes in downtown areas gain more, while affordability improvements are much smaller for others,” Lee said.
Professor Kelvin Wong of The University of Hong Kong added that densification brings trade-offs.
“If you increase supply, the price should come down, but there are other consequences — environment, transportation, and infrastructure,” Wong said.
Their insights come as New Zealand’s housing landscape becomes denser but less affordable. Stats NZ’s Housing in Aotearoa 2025 report shows housing costs have risen 31% since 2020 while incomes grew only 24%, with Auckland remaining the least affordable region despite a 17.9% rise in housing density over the past decade.
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