Auckland and Wellington lag as Invercargill leads NZ house gains
New Zealand’s housing market has stumbled into 2026 with values barely moving, even as cheaper southern and provincial centres quietly pull ahead.
Cotality NZ’s latest Home Value Index shows the national median dipped a marginal -0.1% in January to $802,617, leaving prices -1% down on a year ago and still -17.5% below the January 2022 peak.
Cotality NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson (pictured) says “the true downturn is behind us”, but cautions that “the early signs of an upturn are proving elusive.”
Big-city markets underperform as regions steady
Major metros are still underwhelming. Auckland values fell -0.3% in January and Wellington slipped -0.1%, while Christchurch and Hamilton were flat. In contrast, Tauranga and Dunedin posted modest monthly rises, hinting at slightly firmer demand.
The real outperformance is in more affordable locations. Invercargill is leading annual value growth at 5.5%, just ahead of Gore at 5.4%. Davidson notes that “more favourable affordability will be playing a role” in these markets, with “farming still pretty strong” supporting incomes and confidence.
Property type is another dividing line. Over the year to January, standalone house values fell only -0.7% nationwide, compared to a -1.7% drop for townhouses and a sharp -4.1% fall for apartments, amplifying the drag from Auckland and Wellington.
Refinancing boom as banks chase ‘safer’ borrowers
In the background, bank behaviour is also shifting in favour of solid borrowers. December Reserve Bank figures show gross lending hit $14.1 billion, powered by refinancing as borrowers chased “the 1.5% cashbacks that were on offer in November”.
Davidson says many who moved were “’safer’ borrowers who switched lender”.
With “preapprovals… back and turn around times… shortened which is awesome” and it now “far easier to obtain lending, and banks want to workshop applications”, Davidson sees “a clear window of opportunity for first home buyers” before any clear nationwide upswing emerges.
The subdued price backdrop mirrors broader signs of stabilisation, with realestate.co.nz data showing just 1,374 listings (3% of total) discounted in Q4 2025 and only $41.3 million trimmed from asking prices, even as the latest mortgages.co.nz & Tony Alexander Mortgage Advisers Survey shows a “healthy start to the year,” with “first-home buyers (FHBs) firmly in the driver’s seat and investors stepping back.”
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