Agents say lessons from COVID and new tools leave the market better prepared
Escalating conflict in Iran has pushed oil prices higher, sparked panic petrol buying, and prompted the government to outline a four‑level fuel alert system.
For many, it revives memories of COVID‑era lockdowns and market disruption. For mortgage advisers, the key questions are how far higher fuel costs and renewed uncertainty will weigh on household budgets, buyer sentiment, and borrowing capacity.
Harcourts Cooper & Co managing director Martin Cooper said agents are better equipped than in past crises to keep deals moving, with digital contracts and remote tools now standard. Cooper’s overarching message is to focus on what can be controlled.
“All through my real estate career, there have been reasons and excuses not to take action, not to improve the home you live in, not to make decisions and live your best life, and all based on things no one here in New Zealand can really control,” he told OneRoof.
While Cooper acknowledged the news cycle is unnerving, he added: “This too will pass, but it’s nerve‑wracking, and if you’re a news watcher, it’s scary; it’s horrific.”
Cooper expects some buyers and sellers to delay decisions in what is already a challenging year, with winter seasonality, a looming general election and stretched cost‑of‑living all in play.
Cheaper end stays busy as prestige buyers step back
On the ground, agents are seeing diverging conditions across price points. Auckland luxury specialist Michael Boulgaris said high‑end demand has cooled sharply.
“Last weekend was the first week in my real estate history, in 38 years, I had no one turn up to any open homes – five, six open homes,” Boulgaris told the publication.
In contrast, he noted that “everybody under $800,000 or $900,000, some had up to 25 groups, but anything expensive, people are smart – they just sit back and watch and hold.”
For first‑home buyers and investors focused on more affordable stock, the immediate impact of fuel shocks may be less about open home access and more about disposable income.
Ray White Manukau co‑owner Tom Rawson said higher petrol prices could reinforce an existing trend of buyers wanting to live closer to work rather than endure long commutes.
“The next time they fill up, and it’s gone from $100 to $150, plus the traffic to get there is an hour away and an hour to get home, so maybe (there will be) some more quality of life decision‑making along with costs being the final straw,” Rawson said.
Rates, inflation, and borrowing capacity in the spotlight
For advisers, the bigger swing factor may be how the Reserve Bank responds. Bayleys head of insights Chris Farhi said several “what if” paths are in play, ranging from an economic slowdown that warrants rate cuts to an inflation shock that delays relief.
“Say the situation escalates and we start to see proper impact on the economy, like slowdowns in production and that type of stuff, we might then see the Reserve Bank put through some lower interest rates to stimulate the market, and then that might then provide the conditions for an uptick in activity in the housing market,” Farhi said. “The other view could be that the issue boosts inflation, and that might negate the arguments for lower interest rates.”
In ASB’s weekly insights, economist Wesley Tanuvasa has warned the war is now into its fourth week with the Strait of Hormuz still functionally closed. Tanuvasa expects inflation to push towards 4% and remain elevated, with markets already pricing in the risk of further rate hikes.
Economists stressed that, unlike the ultra‑low mortgage rates that fuelled the COVID boom, macro‑prudential tools such as debt‑to‑income limits are now in place to keep a tighter lid on borrowing.
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