AIP tweaks lift interest while Kiwi buyers stay cautiously confident
New Trade Me Property data point to a two‑speed New Zealand housing market, with international demand surging at the very top end while local buyers move more cautiously but remain broadly upbeat.
Trade Me’s latest State of the Nation insights show international searches for properties priced over $5 million jumped 85% year‑on‑year in February, with 12.2% of traffic in that bracket now coming from offshore, up from 6.6% a year earlier. Auckland remains the primary target, followed by Otago and Canterbury.
The figures come amid a gradual recovery in the housing market, with recent REINZ figures showing the national median sale price up around 3.2% year‑on‑year in February to $795,000, while sales volumes and days to sell point to a market that is firming slowly rather than roaring back.
AIP visa changes put Auckland luxury back on the map
Customer director Gavin Lloyd (pictured) links the spike directly to recent changes to the Active Investor Plus (AIP) visa, the so‑called “Golden Visa”, which now allows eligible investors to buy or build a house worth $5 million or more, down from the previous $15 million threshold.
“What we’re seeing is a direct correlation between policy certainty and global search volume,” Lloyd said. “These amendments are clearly encouraging high-net-worth individuals to re-examine Aotearoa as a premier destination for long-term investment.”
Lloyd says the “AIP effect” is concentrated in Auckland, where overseas search activity in the $5 million‑plus bracket rose 40% across January and February compared with a year earlier.
“High-net-worth individuals from the US, UK, and Australia aren't just browsing,” he said. “They’re zeroing in on $5 million-plus listings because the regulatory path is clearer than it’s been in years,” he said, describing an Auckland residence at that level as “a strategic asset”.
Supply at the ultra‑prime end remains tight, with listings above $5 million accounting for just 1.8% of total Trade Me residential inventory. Brokers dealing with high‑net‑worth clients may need to factor in more competitive bidding and bespoke funding structures for these deals.
Cautious but resilient sentiment among Kiwi buyers
Beyond the luxury niche, Trade Me’s survey of more than 800 active buyers and 1,400 homeowners shows a more grounded outlook heading into an election year. Nearly half of respondents (46%) expect house prices to rise over the next 12 months, down from 51% last year and 65% in 2024, pointing to what Lloyd calls “a recalibration of expectations”.
“It’s clear Kiwi still fundamentally believe in the long-term value of property, but they’re approaching the 12 months ahead with a much more practical and grounded lens,” he said. The share of people who think it is a good time to buy has stayed above 50% for three consecutive years, sitting at 56% for 2026.
That sentiment is underpinned by a period of relative stability in mortgage rates, with the Reserve Bank leaving the official cash rate on hold at 2.25% while it assesses how inflation and growth evolve.
Longer decision windows and ‘turnkey’ preferences
Trade Me reports the average window from first search to accepted offer has doubled to around three to six months this year, compared with one to three months in 2025. At the same time, more buyers are searching for “renovated”, “low maintenance”, “modernised” or “turnkey” homes, indicating a preference for ready‑made properties over large renovation projects.
Meanwhile, 80% of homeowners cited “getting the price they want” as their biggest concern when selling and 40% worried about time to sell.
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