Brokers brace for longer holds, thinner Kiwi gains
New Zealand mortgage advisers may need to adjust strategies for a long‑hold, low‑drama phase in the property cycle, as new data points to stabilising resale conditions rather than a fresh upswing.
Cotality NZ’s Pain and Gain Report for Q4 2025 shows 88.1% of residential resales in the December quarter achieved a profit, broadly in line with 88.0% in Q3 and well down on the late‑2021 peak of more than 99% of sales making money.
The result ends three consecutive quarters of declining profit‑making resales and indicates the downturn has shifted into more of a sideways market than an ongoing slide.
That message is reinforced by Cotality’s latest Home Value Index, with national prices barely moving at the start of 2026 and values still sitting well below their early‑2022 peak.
Cotality NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson (pictured) said the resale figures line up with flattening headline values.
“Resale performance is still soft compared with the boom years, but the data suggests the downward drift has slowed and flatlined, and conditions are broadly holding steady,” Davidson said. “Property values have flattened out in recent months, and that stability is now flowing through to resale data.”
Median gains still sizeable, but not ‘free money’
Nationally, the median resale gain in Q4 was $298,000, down from the late‑2021 peak of $440,000 but still higher than anything seen prior to 2021. The median resale loss sat at $55,000, only slightly higher than in the September quarter.
For owner‑occupiers, advisers may need to remind clients that these headline gains are not “free money” if most or all of the equity is required for the next purchase.
Record hold periods reshape advice
Hold periods are also lengthening. Properties resold for a gain in Q4 had been owned for a median 10.1 years – the longest since the series began in the mid‑1990s – while loss‑making resales had typically been held for just 3.9 years, often by buyers who entered close to the most recent market peak.
That widening gap has clear implications for refinance timing, equity‑release strategies and discussions about how long clients may need to stay put.
Houses still safer than apartments
Product type remains a key driver of risk. Standalone houses continued to record a lower share of resale losses than apartments, which “tend to feel market downturns more acutely, but the data does not point to sellers under pressure or fire sales occurring,” Davidson said.
The gap reflects long‑run growth differences rather than any sudden collapse in demand for units.
Main centres firm at the margins
Regional trends are also starting to stabilise. Several main centres recorded small improvements in resale outcomes over the quarter, helping underpin the national picture. Auckland still had the highest share of loss‑making resales at 17.4%, but that was down on Q3.
Wellington and Tauranga also saw modest easing, Dunedin posted the sharpest quarterly improvement, and Christchurch remained the most resilient major centre, with just 5.3% of resales made at a loss, Cotality data shows.
Outlook: stability, not another boom
Looking ahead, New Zealand’s economic backdrop, early signs of rising sales activity and a tentative easing in listings are expected to support only gradual house price growth into 2026.
Davidson said lower mortgage rates “should help underpin demand, but any lift in prices is likely to be gradual rather than a sharp rebound”, adding that “we’re entering a period of stability rather than a boom” – a signal for mortgage advisers to focus on serviceability, holding power and realistic capital‑growth expectations rather than promising quick wins.
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