Buyer pipeline builds as market finds its feet again
New Zealand’s housing market has entered 2026 with more stock, busy banks, and a pool of pre-approved but hesitant buyers.
While the national average asking price dipped 1.5% year-on-year to $856,730 in January, activity indicators point to a market that’s moving – just more deliberately than in previous cycles.
Cotality’s Decoding 2026 survey echoes this steadier tone, showing confidence slowly rebuilding and most New Zealand agents expecting only modest house price gains this year.
Vanessa Williams (pictured), spokesperson for realestate.co.nz, says conditions are constructive even if the pace feels slower.
“We’re seeing strong listings and solid sales volumes, but buyers are still taking their time,” Williams said. “Banks are busy with mortgage pre-approvals, so buyers are getting ready, but they remain cautious. If they’re waiting for pre-election promises or further OCR cuts, they could miss out. There’s plenty of stock on the market to choose from which makes the new year a good time to transact.”
Regional winners reshape the housing landscape
Regional divergence is sharpening across the country. The West Coast recorded an all‑time asking price high of $585,881 in January, up 17.4% year-on-year, while Gisborne, Canterbury and Central Otago/Lakes District also booked January highs.
By contrast, Marlborough’s average asking price fell 12.6% to $676,223, dipping into the $600k bracket for the first time since 2021.
On the listings front, Gisborne led with a 45.1% year-on-year jump to 74 new listings, while Hawke’s Bay climbed 21.8% to 319, in contrast to double-digit declines in Central Otago/Lakes District, Coromandel, Wairarapa, Otago, Southland, and the Central North Island.
Williams notes that, “After a long period of price stability, the market is finding its feet again. What we’re seeing is confidence returning in areas where lifestyle, value and long-term appeal align.”
These trends highlight the growing importance of local conditions over headline national numbers.
High stock and strong December sales underpin 2026 outlook
National stock climbed 2.3% year-on-year to 33,149 listings – the highest January level since 2014 – giving buyers more choice and negotiating power. Meanwhile, REINZ data shows 6,628 properties were sold in December, one of the strongest December results in recent years.
Gisborne again stood out on the supply side with stock up 15.1% year-on-year to 157 listings, while Southland recorded the sharpest fall – down 19.1% to 497 – with Central Otago/Lakes District and Otago also posting double-digit stock declines.
“We may not be seeing a dramatic rebound, but properties are selling. December's sales numbers suggest buyers are active, just more considered in their approach,” Williams said.
Together, elevated stock levels and solid sales volumes sit alongside subdued bank forecasts, signalling a “patchy but promising” start to 2026 for New Zealand’s property market.
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