NZ housing market gears up for spring
New Zealand’s housing market is showing early signs of a spring revival, with fewer homes hitting the market, stronger buyer demand, and sales activity building momentum.
The shift comes as economists widely expect the Reserve Bank to deliver a 25bps OCR cut in August, following weak labour market data, slowing wage growth, and anchored inflation expectations – conditions that could further boost buyer confidence and borrowing capacity.
Sales volumes post strongest run in years
According to the latest REINZ Residential Market Statistics, national sales volumes in June 2025 were up 20.3% compared to the same month last year. Seasonally adjusted, that’s a 14.8% lift – the third consecutive month of annual growth and the strongest run in years.
LJ Hooker Head of Research Mathew Tiller (pictured) said the housing market shift follows a prolonged period of high stock levels and cautious buyers.
“For most of the past 18 months, listings were high, and buyer confidence was patchy,” Tiller said. “That’s now starting to turn. We’re seeing fewer homes coming to market and more buyers competing for them. The change in market sentiment is becoming clear.”
Stock levels tighten as demand surges
Figures from the July realestate.co.nz Property Report show listing volumes have fallen by around 2,000 homes each month since April. At the same time, search activity surged 25% between June and July, while buyer enquiries rose 9.5% month-on-month.
Tiller said the mix of shrinking stock and stronger demand is reshaping housing market conditions across the country.
“The combination of declining stock levels and stronger demand is creating more competition for available properties, especially in the regions where affordability is often better and returns are stronger for investors,” he said.
Regions lead the recovery
REINZ data shows strong regional growth in June sales volumes, led by Gisborne (+70%), followed by Southland (+34.9%), Bay of Plenty (+33.3%), Marlborough (+32.7%), Canterbury (+26.7%), Waikato (+25.7%), and Auckland (+17.8%). Even traditionally quieter housing markets such as the West Coast and Nelson posted double-digit gains.
Policy outlook supports buyer confidence
Tiller said the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy stance is also helping to underpin market confidence.
“While the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the cash rate steady at 4.75% in July, its statement noted that inflation has continued to ease, the labour market is softening, and GDP growth remains modest,” he said.
“Mortgage rates have come down from their late-2023 peaks, particularly for shorter fixed terms. With borrowing costs stabilising and listings tightening, many buyers are choosing to act now rather than wait.”
With a rate cut now almost fully priced in by markets – and the potential for further easing by year-end – lower borrowing costs could sustain this momentum into the peak spring selling season.
Affordability and access to credit driving activity
Affordability is another factor luring buyers back. According to realestate.co.nz, 60% of July listings were priced under $850,000.
“First-home buyers are taking advantage of softer prices, improved access to credit, and better affordability,” Tiller said.
“Investors are stepping back into regional markets where yields remain strong, and vacancy rates are low. Many upgraders and movers, who paused during the downturn, are also re-entering the market as conditions stabilise.”
Spring outlook: Momentum building
Looking ahead, Tiller said the recent momentum could build further.
“If current trends continue, with tight listings, rising demand, and falling interest rates, we’re likely to see an active spring selling season and upward pressure on prices,” he said. “The market doesn’t need a boom to bounce back. A steady shift in sentiment is all it takes, and right now, that shift is underway.”
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