Stronger people flows could reignite Kiwi housing demand
New Zealand’s latest migration and tourism figures point to an economy “that is starting to hum” – a shift with clear implications for Kiwi mortgage advisers.
“Make no bones about it, today’s migration and tourism data were consistent with an economy that is starting to hum,” ASB senior economist Mark Smith (pictured left) said.
Stats NZ reports a net migration gain of 14,200 in 2025, down from 23,800 in 2024 and the lowest calendar-year gain since 2013 (excluding 2021).
International migration spokesperson Bryan Downes (pictured right) notes, “Annual net migration fell from a record 135,500 in the October 2023 year to a provisional low of 8,600 in the August 2025 year, before increasing in late 2025.”
That late‑year turn is reinforced by ASB’s permanent and long‑term (PLT) data: December saw the strongest monthly net inflow since early 2024, with annualised net inflows over the last three months rising to 25,000 – the highest in 18 months.
Crucially for mortgage advisers, Smith points out that NZ citizen departures are cooling while non‑resident arrivals are strengthening, and argues that “the tide has turned.”
As 2026 progresses, strengthening net immigration is expected to ease one of the major drags on population growth, domestic demand, and the housing market.
Tourism recovery boosts regional economies
Tourism is also rebounding strongly.
“The December 2025 year was the first annual period to exceed 3.5 million overseas visitor arrivals since the March 2020 year,” Downes said.
Visitor arrivals reached 3.51 million, about 90% of 2019 levels, with Australia leading the increase and the United States and China also contributing solid gains.
A lower New Zealand dollar is expected to support visitor spending and make overseas trips “that much more expensive for kiwis,” encouraging more local holidays and bolstering domestic tourism operators.
Stronger tourism typically feeds through into tighter regional rental markets and increased investor interest in key visitor hubs.
OCR path: higher rates on a stronger economy
For mortgage strategy, the key takeaway is that stronger migration and tourism mean a firmer economy – and likely firmer rates.
“We expect a gradual series of OCR hikes starting at the end of this year, with the OCR peaking at 3.25% in the second half of next year,” Smith said.
Kiwi mortgage advisers should factor in rising demand for housing alongside a gradual tightening cycle. That means stress‑testing borrowers for higher repayments, revisiting fixed‑rate terms, and preparing clients for a market where improving growth, not rate cuts, is the main story for 2026.
For more information, read the Stats NZ reports on net migration and visitor arrivals as well as the ASB insights on said reports.
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