Buyers regain power as listings rise and prices stabilise
The New Zealand residential property market in 2025 shifted from recovery to stability, with stronger sales volumes but only marginal price movement. National median prices eased slightly even as more buyers and sellers returned, signalling a more balanced, sustainable market heading into 2026.
Sales up more than 10% as buyers return
Data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) shows national residential sales volumes surged 10.3% year-on-year to 80,655 in 2025, as easing interest rates and improved borrowing conditions lifted activity.
“Market activity strengthened in 2025, with a higher number of transactions, reflecting growing confidence compared to overall in 2024, influenced by factors such as lower interest rates,” said REINZ chief executive, Lizzy Ryley (pictured).
Despite the lift in transactions, renewed demand did not trigger a fresh price spike.
House prices steady as buyers gain negotiating power
Nationally, prices remained broadly flat. The median house price edged down just 0.6% year-on-year to $775,000, underlining a stabilising rather than surging market.
Higher stock levels boosted buyer choice, with average inventory up 5.9% from 31,338 properties in 2024 to 33,182 in 2025. This shifted negotiating power toward buyers, who stayed disciplined on affordability and value, and were unwilling to bid aggressively above perceived market levels.
“More sellers decided it was time to list their properties as well, so as buyers returned to the market, they had more choice and more negotiating power overall," Ryley said. "Vendors who were willing to meet the market attracted strong buyer interest, while those who were slower to adjust experienced longer time on the market before revising their expectations to match market conditions.”
Southland, Otago, and Canterbury outpace the national trend
Regional performance diverged, with more affordable markets leading the way. Southland’s median sale price climbed 6.3% to $489,000, Otago’s rose 2.9% to $700,000, and Canterbury’s increased 2.2% to $700,000 between 2024 and 2025, REINZ reported.
Ryley said supply shifts and regional demand dynamics were crucial.
“Supply conditions further shaped market outcomes. realestate.co.nz data indicate that while listings and inventory increased nationally, supply-demand balance differed across regions," she said.
"In Southland and Otago, inventory growth was more contained relative to demand, limiting downward price pressure. In Canterbury, although listings increased, demand recovered in parallel, supporting both a higher number of transactions and moderate price growth.”
Lower price points in these centres meant buyers were less constrained by borrowing capacity, enabling earlier and more confident market re-entry despite still-elevated interest rates.
Stable days to sell signal a functioning, balanced market
Selling times reinforced the picture of a more even market. According to REINZ, median days to sell were unchanged at 44 days nationally in both 2024 and 2025, reflecting conditions without the urgency of overheating or the prolonged delays typical of downturns.
Through October, November and December 2025, sales counts, prices and days to sell remained broadly consistent, reinforcing confidence for both buyers and sellers and reducing incentives to delay decisions.
“Overall, 2025 marked a year of stabilisation rather than acceleration," Ryley said. "The consistency observed through the final quarter of 2025 suggests that confidence had become more firmly embedded, rather than being driven by short-term reactions to individual economic events. This behavioural shift will be a welcome change for buyers and sellers, and provides an important foundation for understanding the market’s positioning as it moves into 2026.”
Outlook 2026: gradual growth, not another boom
Looking ahead, the New Zealand housing market appears set for a more balanced phase. Any further easing or stabilisation in interest rates is expected to support gradual, sustainable price growth built on already improving sales activity, rather than fuelling rapid or speculative gains.
While 2025’s OCR cuts helped unlock demand, markets now suggest the interest rate easing cycle may be past its low point, tempering expectations for any sharp upswing, RNZ reported.
Recent analysis notes that the OCR and mortgage rates are now lower than economists had expected in earlier forecasts, but wholesale interest rates that drive fixed mortgage pricing are “past their lows for the easing cycle,” putting “upward pressure on both longer-term mortgage rates and term deposit rates.”
This backdrop supports the view that any further boost to sales activity and prices through 2026 is more likely to be moderate and incremental, rather than the start of a new rapid-growth phase.
External forecasters are broadly aligned with the stabilisation story, but some remain cautious about meaningful house price growth in 2026.
Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan has said he is “not confident there would be much growth at all” in national house prices in 2026, following what he describes as a patchy year for the property market in 2025, RNZ reported. Many forecasters had to revise their expectations repeatedly as conditions evolved, reinforcing the case for a conservative outlook where any recovery remains gradual rather than dramatic.
Combined with cautious economic forecasts and signs that the rate cycle may have moved past its trough, the outlook points to modest, regionally varied growth in 2026 rather than a return to the volatility seen in earlier cycles.
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