Housing values steady, buyers cautious, vendors more realistic
The latest QV House Price Index shows national home values are 21.6% higher than in March 2020, but growth has slowed sharply, with a 0.4% decline over the past year.
“The past six years have really been a story of two extremes – incredibly rapid, unsustainable growth, followed by a sharp correction, and then a gradual return to normal,” QV spokesperson Simon Petersen (pictured) said.
Petersen said the market is behaving more like it did before COVID‑19, with “less urgency, more negotiation, and a stronger focus on fundamentals like affordability and supply.”
That assessment aligns with wider industry reports, which note the property recovery has stalled again as buyers regain the upper hand, with agents observing falling prices, quieter open homes, and investors stepping back.
Regional trends highlight divergence
While the national picture is steady, regional differences remain stark:
- Auckland: Average values are still 9.6% higher than six years ago but fell 3.8% in the past year.
- Christchurch: It remains a standout performer, with values 55% above March 2020 and modest growth continuing.
- Wellington: Values are down 5% annually, with values now slightly below pre-pandemic levels.
- Otago: It is leading growth in early 2026, with Dunedin values up 3.7% this quarter.
- Waikato: Values dipped 0.8% over the first quarter of 2026, with Hamilton values only marginally higher than a year ago.
- Bay of Plenty: Values rose 0.6% over the first quarter of 2026, with Tauranga up 1.6% on a year ago.
Market defined by caution
Local experts emphasise a more measured tone, with David Cornford in Wellington observing: “This uncertainty and lack of confidence is causing buyers to take a more cautious approach to the market.”
As Petersen concluded: “The housing market of 2026 seems to be defined more by caution rather than urgency… buyers are more considered, vendors are more realistic, and overall activity is tracking closer to longer-term norms.”
The latest figures confirm that the extremes of the pandemic years have passed. National values remain well above pre‑2020 levels, according to QV. That makes the market look resilient when measured against the pandemic baseline, yet subdued when compared with the boom years.
For more information, read the QV media release.
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