Manufacturing leads sharp rebound as firms report stronger activity.
New Zealand business confidence strengthened further in November, with the latest ANZ Business Outlook pointing to rising optimism and improving real-world activity.
“Business confidence rose in November from already-elevated levels, but more crucially that confidence is now being backed up by stronger performance,” Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon (pictured left) said.
Sentiment hits multi-year highs
Business confidence lifted from 58 to 67 in November, while expected own activity increased from 44 to 53, the highest levels in 11 years.
“Things are looking up! Out of a hole, admittedly – when interpreting questions about whether things will go up or down from here, base effects (‘can’t get worse!’) are powerful. But even so, something has clearly changed,” ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner (pictured right) said.
The ANZ survey shows firms are no longer just hopeful – they are reporting actual improvement. Past own activity jumped from +5 to +21, its strongest since 2021, and past employment improved to -2, narrowing previously steep declines.
Westpac: Strong performance confirms recovery is taking hold
Gordon said November’s results reflect a broader shift already visible across the economy.
He noted that manufacturing saw the most substantial improvement and that the weaker New Zealand dollar may now be benefiting exporters. Stronger gains were also recorded in services, agriculture and parts of construction.
This lines up with Westpac’s broader economic assessment that activity is beginning to turn after a soft first half of the year.
Regional rebound broadens despite Wellington lag
Wellington remains the weakest region, though even the capital recorded an improvement. Auckland and the South Island outside Canterbury saw the most pronounced rebounds in past activity.
“Green shoots are looking well established, if this month’s survey is anything to go by," Zollner said. "It is particularly encouraging that the improvement in sentiment is rooted in an improvement in experienced activity, not just hope.”
Pricing intentions strengthen as inflation signals stay mixed
Inflation indicators were mixed. The share of firms expecting to increase prices rose to 51%, while expected cost increases eased slightly to 74%. One-year ahead inflation expectations remained stable at 2.7%.
Pricing intentions also firmed to 50.5%, suggesting firms feel more confident about rebuilding margins.
OCR cuts gaining traction – and likely complete
This was the first full survey since RBNZ’s 50bp OCR cut in October, and the response indicates the stimulus is flowing through.
“With the recovery underway and CPI inflation at the top of the target band, we don’t expect the RBNZ to cut the OCR again this cycle barring unexpected developments,” Zollner said.
Westpac echoed that outlook in its recent commentary, noting that RBNZ is prepared to let existing cuts work through the economy and sees mounting signs of activity picking up.
Key November 2025 survey results
- Business confidence: 67.1 (Prev: 58.1)
- Own activity expectations: 53.1 (Prev: 44.6)
- Activity versus a year ago: 21.3 (Prev: 4.6)
- Inflation expectations: 2.69% (Prev: 2.75%)
- Pricing intentions: 50.5 (Prev: 43.9)
Outlook: Firmer momentum heading into 2026
Westpac expects modest growth in late 2025, strengthening further into 2026 as lower rates, resilient commodity prices and contained inflation pressures support a more consistent economic expansion.
Read the ANZ Business Outlook survey and Westpac First Impressions for more insights.
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