Black Friday pull-forward softens December spending – Westpac, ASB say
New Zealand retail card spending slipped in December 2025 after a strong November sales surge, but quarterly figures still point to gradually improving demand.
Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod (pictured right) said retail spending fell 0.1% in December, following a 1.2% rise in November. Ranchhod said November’s “solid” lift was likely driven by the growing prevalence of Black Friday and other November sales, with some traditional holiday spending brought forward.
“Even with more spending taking place in November, spending levels largely held up through December,” he said, adding that households’ spending appetites are “picking up (albeit gradually)”.
ASB economist Yen Nguyen (pictured left) reported a slightly weaker headline picture, saying total and retail card spending fell 0.5% month-on-month in December, “the first monthly fall in Q4 2025”.
On an annual basis, both Westpac and ASB said total retail and core retail spending were about 0.5% lower than a year earlier.
Apparel under pressure, hospitality remains a bright spot
Both banks highlighted apparel as the main drag in December. Ranchhod said clothing-related spending fell 3.6%, “reversing last month's rise”, and pointed to intense competition from large offshore and online retailers that means “much of that spending won’t be with New Zealand retailers”.
Nguyen said December’s results showed declines across most sectors, with vehicle spending down 1.8% and durables slipping 0.1% after two monthly gains. Consumables recorded a small 0.1% fall, while fuel spending rose for a third month, reflecting higher pump prices.
Hospitality stood out as the “bright spot” in December, Nguyen said, with spending in that category up 1.4% month-on-month for the second consecutive month. She noted that hospitality is being supported by recovering domestic demand as well as increased tourist spending, with short-term visitor numbers from Australia and China lifting and a weak New Zealand dollar likely boosting foreign visitor outlays.
Q4 card data point to cautious recovery
Despite the December dip, both banks said card spending rose over the quarter. ASB estimated retail, total, and core spending were up around 0.9%–1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, pointing to a roughly 0.5% rise in retail sales volumes.
Looking ahead, Westpac expects retail spending to “continue to rise over 2026”, though gains are likely to be gradual given ongoing softness in the jobs market.
ASB said it remains “cautiously optimistic” on the consumer outlook, with households rolling onto lower borrowing costs, signs of improving hiring, and an expected housing-market recovery and further tourism growth in 2026 helping to underpin domestic spending, even as inflation near 3% keeps real card spending “anaemic” for now.
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