Rate cuts, gender splits reshape risks for Kiwi advisers
New Zealand heads into its 2026 election year with the National-led government (National, ACT, NZ First) only narrowly ahead of the Labour-led opposition (Labour, Greens, Maori Party), according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll.
The December 2025 survey shows the National–ACT–NZ First coalition on 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from November, just ahead of the Labour–Greens–Māori Party Opposition on 47%, up 2.5 points.
Within the governing bloc, support for National was unchanged at 33%, NZ First rose 1 point to 10%, while ACT dipped 0.5 points to 7.5%. On the Opposition side, Labour climbed 4.5 points to 32.5%, the Greens fell 2.5 points to 12%, and Te Pāti Māori was steady at 2.5%.
On these numbers, the National-led government would win 62 seats (down six from the election) against 58 seats for the Labour‑led opposition (up three), in a likely 120-seat Parliament.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine (pictured) said the contest is finely balanced.
“The two major parties of government – National and Labour – enter the election year with almost identical support," Levine said. "National is on 33%, which would secure 41 seats in Parliament if repeated at the election, just ahead of Labour on 32.5% (40 seats).”
Gender and age split the vote
The poll highlights a stark gender and age divide. Overall, 56.5% of women support the Labour‑led opposition, compared to 42.5% who back the National‑led government. Among men, the picture is reversed: 58% favour National–ACT–NZ First, while 37.5% support Labour–Greens–Māori.
“Younger women aged 18-49 are the central pillar of support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition over the National-led Government (69.5% cf. 30%),” Levine said. Support for Labour (43%), the Greens (21.5%) and the Māori Party (5%) is higher in this group than any other.
Older voters favour Christopher Luxon’s coalition. Women aged 50+ back the National‑led government (53.5%) over the opposition (45.5%). A large majority of men aged 50+ support National–ACT–NZ First (68.5%) versus 29.5% for Labour–Greens–Māori, with support for National (41.5%), NZ First (14%) and ACT (13%) all peaking in this demographic.
Confidence weak but RBNZ rate cuts may aid government
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand government confidence rating was unchanged at 85 in December, with 52% of voters saying the country is “heading in the wrong direction” and 37% saying it is “heading in the right direction”.
Levine said the recent easing in interest rates could prove crucial for Luxon.
“The good news for the National-led government in December was the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision to cut interest rates in late November by 0.25% to 2.25% – now the lowest official interest rates have been for over three years since July 2022,” she said.
“The RBNZ has cut interest rates by 2% points in 2025 and by a total of 3.25% points since August 2024. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will be hoping the sharp cuts to interest rates over the last 18 months will provide renewed support to the economy in the run-up to this year’s election – due to be held towards the end of the year.”
Read the Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll report here.
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