Lower rates, high stock give buyers rare negotiating power
Property values across New Zealand were effectively unchanged in November, reinforcing the sense that the housing market remains in a holding pattern despite lower mortgage rates and improving sentiment.
Cotality NZ’s latest hedonic Home Value Index (HVI) shows national values were flat in November, after a modest 0.1% lift in October. The national median now sits at $806,551, which is 17.4% below the early‑2022 peak and only 1.1% above the June 2023 trough.
Cotality NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson (pictured) said that while confidence is slowly turning, prices themselves are proving stubborn.
“Property values across the country were patchy over May to August as households and firms remained in a cautious mood," Davidson said in a media release. "September and October brought a few signs of life for values, but November just eased off a little bit again.
He said recent falls in mortgage rates and improvements in housing affordability measures should, over time, create some upside for prices as the market moves into 2026, but that the latest data show this shift is taking time to get underway.
Davidson noted that listing stock remains higher than normal for the time of year, leaving many buyers still feeling “in the box-seat” during price negotiations, even as the broader economy shows some early signs of improvement. He added that the unemployment rate and lacklustre jobs growth remain key concerns.
“On balance, the fundamentals seem to be moving towards growth in property values next year. But right now, we remain in a holding pattern,” he said.
Latest figures from realestate.co.nz and ASB reinforce this picture, with new listings and total stock well up on last year and buyers rating conditions the best in 15 years, yet many remain cautious, leaving today’s unusually buyer‑friendly fundamentals underused.
Auckland drags, Christchurch, and Tauranga edge ahead
Performance across the main centres was mixed in November. Auckland remained sluggish, with values down 0.2%. Ōtepoti Dunedin and Te Whanganui‑a‑Tara Wellington both edged up 0.1%, Christchurch recorded a 0.3% rise, Tauranga was up 0.6%, and Hamilton gained 0.7%.
Within Auckland, most sub‑markets weakened again in November, with only Waitakere bucking the trend, edging up 0.2%. Elsewhere, monthly falls ranged from a modest 0.1% decline on the North Shore to a 0.8% drop in Papakura.
Papakura has also underperformed over the past three months (down 1.2%), while Rodney has been flat since August and North Shore is up 0.8% over the same period. Compared to the previous peak, values across Auckland are still down between 19% and 25%.
“Across the super-city as a whole, November was the eighth monthly decline in a row, totalling –3.1%," Davidson said.
"That’s after a smaller, cumulative rise of 1.6% in the seven months to March this year. In other words, Tāmaki Makaurau continues to lag many other parts of the country, and this is weighing on the national median. Buyer caution and a relatively high supply of property are relevant factors here.”
Wellington shows patchy signs of life
Wellington also produced a mixed result in November. Lower Hutt saw values fall 0.5%, while the Kāpiti Coast edged down 0.1%. Other sub‑markets rose, with Wellington City recording a 0.4% increase.
However, the falls from peak remain significant across the region, ranging from about 23% in Kāpiti Coast and Porirua to around 27% in Lower Hutt.
“There are a few patchy signs of life around some of these areas, with Wellington City, for example, now rising for two months in a row," Davidson said. "But the general story for Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington’s property market still looks fairly sluggish, reflecting the subdued state of the underlying economy and muted sentiment.”
Regional markets: Softer provinces, a handful of new peaks
While Auckland remains the laggard among the main centres, some provincial markets were also soft in November. Napier dipped 0.3%, Hastings fell 0.2%, and Queenstown was down 0.6%, although Queenstown has still posted some growth over a broader three‑month horizon.
A cluster of regional markets were flat or only slightly higher, but a few areas stood out more clearly: Whangārei recorded a 0.5% monthly rise, and Invercargill climbed 0.8%. Invercargill is one of only four districts where values reached a new peak in November, alongside Gore, Ashburton, and Kaikōura.
“If you take a step back, the broad trend among many of the country’s regional markets has been for property value falls to become less widespread in recent months," Davidson said. "That seems consistent with better results from the primary sector of our economy, including dairying, which will be creating a bit more cashflow in those areas and rising sentiment.”
Outlook: Lower rates, more buyers – but ‘controlled rather than crazy’ growth
Looking ahead, Davidson describes the current phase as “one step forward and one step back” for values, particularly in Auckland.
“That said, although there may not be much direct impact on the housing market from last week’s OCR drop, mortgage rates have already fallen a long way in the past year or so and as current fixed terms roll over more existing borrowers will enjoy the benefits,” he said.
“Clearly, new borrowers are already accessing those lower rates, with first-home buyers remaining a very strong presence in the market, and mortgaged multiple property owners, including ‘mum and dad’ investors, also steadily returning.
“On top of the falls in mortgage rates, a rise in sales volumes may erode the stock of listings on the market in 2026, alongside a probable upturn in the economy and jobs market. In this environment, property values look poised to grow more consistently.
“However, a recent rise in the stock of property relative to population, as well as the presence of debt-to-income ratio caps, suggests that any house price growth in 2026 is likely to be controlled rather than crazy.”
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