First-home buyers dominate as property confidence returns
New Zealand’s housing market is showing the first real signs of upward momentum since early 2024, according to the latest NZHL Property Report by Tony Alexander, which gathered insights from 275 licensed real estate agents nationwide.
Alexander (pictured) said agents are reporting stronger buyer activity, improving price sentiment, and a noticeable increase in open-home attendance — suggesting a market shift may be underway.
“More agents view house prices as rising than falling for the first time since February,” he said. “First-home buyers continue to be the main purchasers increasing in number, whereas investors are still cautious.”
Buyer activity strengthens across the country
A net 31% of agents reported more people showing up at auctions in October — up from 21% in September and the highest level since October 2023.
Similarly, 43% of agents said open-home attendance had increased, up from 32% last month.
“These results indicate more buyers are in the market,” Alexander said, “perhaps looking to take advantage of low financing costs, good stock levels, and expectations for a turning in the economy.”
Price confidence returns after long decline
For the first time in eight months, more agents believe prices are rising than falling — a net 7% compared to –11% a month ago.
Alexander said this marks the third mini-recovery since the 2021 pandemic boom.
“Previous upturns faded as interest rates rose or job security weakened, but this one may prove more durable,” he said.
FOMO edges back into the market
A growing share of agents (20%) now see signs of FOMO among buyers, the highest reading since January. While still far below the 2020–21 frenzy, Alexander noted that “the early signs of labour market improvement alongside low interest rates may see FOMO remain firm this time and strengthen through 2026 into 2027.”
First-home buyers lead market activity
A net 58% of agents reported more first-home buyers entering the market — the strongest reading since September 2023.
Meanwhile, investor activity remains weak.
“We cannot see evidence of a fresh lift in investor demand,” Alexander said, citing “rising rental operating costs, a shortage of good tenants, and worries about new taxes offsetting the single positive of low financing costs.”
Appraisal requests rise, indicating ongoing supply
A net 53% of agents reported more requests for property appraisals, unchanged from last month but still at a strong level. Alexander said this “suggests good listings availability is likely to continue for buyers as we go through summer.”
What this means for mortgage advisers
For mortgage advisers, the emerging recovery signals renewed borrower confidence and rising pre-approval demand.
With first-home buyers dominating and FOMO creeping back, advisers can expect more clients seeking fast approvals and advice on timing their purchases.
However, with affordability pressures and employment concerns still present, advisers will play a critical role in guiding borrowers through responsible lending choices and managing expectations as the market’s rebound takes hold.
For more details, read the full NZHL report.
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