Cautious buyers, stable prices, big opportunities for advisers
Residential values have edged higher but not overheated, creating a more negotiable environment for Kiwi borrowers and their advisers.
The latest QV data shows average home values rising 0.9% over the three months to January 2026, putting the national average at $910,285 – just 0.4% up on a year ago and still well below the 2022 peak.
QV National Spokesperson Andrea Rush (pictured) summed up the shift, noting that “overall value movements remain modest, but we’re seeing fewer areas recording declines and more locations showing small quarterly increases, which suggests values are beginning to settle rather than continuing to weaken.”
For mortgage advisers, that means less urgency-driven FOMO and more time to structure deals, optimise terms, and protect clients from overextending.
Regional splits call for finely tuned lending strategies
This is not a one‑speed market. Dunedin has posted the strongest quarterly growth among the main centres, ahead of Christchurch and Tauranga, while Auckland and Hamilton are nudging up more slowly and Wellington is effectively flat.
In Auckland, QV valuer Hugh Robson observed that “price levels have remained fairly stable overall,” despite subdued January activity, and that “first-home buyers continue to make up a significant share of the market.” Advisers can leverage this by targeting townhouse and entry‑level segments with sharper pre‑approvals and education around servicing tests and future rate movements.
Cautious buyers, steady rates, and the 2026 outlook
Buyer sentiment remains careful, even as lower interest rates lift capacity for some households. Rush cautioned that “employment trends, confidence levels and interest rate movements will all play a role this year,” and that the data “does not point to a rapid upswing.”
In Wellington, David Cornford reports that buyers have “plenty of choice and bargaining power” and are “taking advantage of lower property prices and more favourable interest rates.”
For advisers nationwide, this is the year to double down on scenario modelling, refinancing reviews and tailored product mixes as values stay broadly stable with only pockets of modest change by location and dwelling type.
For a more detailed report, read the QV media release.
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