September lift signals tentative turnaround, says Cotality NZ
Property values in New Zealand edged up 0.1% in September, breaking a five-month streak of declines, according to Cotality NZ’s Home Value Index (HVI). The national median value now sits at $810,141.
Cotality NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson (pictured) said the modest gain reflects lower mortgage rates, improving sales activity, and tentative signs of an economic turnaround.
“September’s rise in values was clearly marginal, and it’s far too early to conclude that this marks the start of a new, sustained lift,” Davidson said. “After all, the stock of available listings – while falling – remains relatively high, and caution continues to pervade the market.”
He noted the rise must be seen against a cumulative -1.6% fall from April to August, adding: “In short, we’re not on solid economic ground just yet.”
Buyers active, but confidence subdued
Davidson said conditions continue to favour buyers who can secure finance, with first-home buyers and multiple property owners remaining key players.
This caution is reflected in vendor data too. Realestate.co.nz reported national average asking price fell 2.4% year-on-year in September to $851,259, the lowest since February. Stock rose 2.3% to 30,721 properties, while new listings climbed 7.1% from August.
For mortgage advisers, this means lending opportunities remain strongest among first-home buyers — currently around 26% of the market — and investors selectively re-entering.
Major centres diverge
Across the main centres, Wellington fell -0.4% in September, while Auckland dipped -0.2%. Hamilton was flat, Dunedin rose 0.3%, Christchurch lifted 0.6%, and Tauranga climbed 1.3%.
In Auckland, the headline decline was driven by weakness in its largest sub-markets. Auckland City (-0.2%), Manukau (-0.4%) and North Shore (-0.6%) — which together account for almost 70% of the city’s dwellings — all fell. Other areas held firmer, with Waitakere up 0.3% and Rodney up 0.2%.
Values in Auckland remain 20–24% below their peak, while Wellington’s sub-markets are down 23–26% from highs, underscoring the scale of correction still in play.
Provincial areas show resilience
Several provincial markets outperformed in September, reflecting what Davidson described as a “two-speed economy.”
Gisborne surged 2.5%, New Plymouth lifted 0.7%, and Invercargill rose 0.8%. Both New Plymouth and Invercargill are now at least 3% higher than a year ago.
“September nevertheless showed a pretty clear urban-rural property market divergence, which we’ll keep a close eye on,” Davidson said.
Outlook for mortgage advisers
For advisers, the key themes remain cautious optimism, regional divergence, and selective buyer activity. While national values are stabilising, major centres such as Auckland and Wellington remain subdued.
At the same time, first-home buyers, multiple property owners, and stronger provincial areas continue to generate lending opportunities — with Stats NZ data showing 34,078 new homes consented in the year to August. Westpac’s Satish Ranchhod said the consents trend suggests the building cycle has “found a base,” though a material recovery is unlikely before 2026.
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