Resale profits hit 10-year low as buyer power grows, Cotality NZ data shows
New Zealand property owners are realising the lowest rate of resale profits in more than a decade, as subdued values and elevated stock levels continue to give buyers the upper hand.
Even so, early signs of a spring revival are emerging, with fewer homes coming to market, stronger buyer demand, and sales activity beginning to build. This comes as economists widely expect the Reserve Bank to cut the OCR by 25bps in August, a move that could further lift confidence and boost borrowing capacity.
Cotality NZ’s latest Pain & Gain Report shows 89.4% of properties resold for more than their original purchase price in the June quarter – down from 90.7% in the March quarter and the lowest rate since mid-2014.
Cotality NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson (pictured) said most vendors are still making a gain, but market conditions have shifted.
“Nearly nine out of 10 resellers are still making a gross profit, which in many cases is a substantial amount of money,” Davidson said. “However, the results reflect the fact that values are still well down from the peak in many areas and buyers with finance approved continue to hold most of the pricing power.”
The national median resale gain in Q2 2025 was $279,000, down from the late-2021 peak of $440,000 but still above pre-2020 levels. The median loss was $52,500.
Longer hold periods smooth market cycles
The median hold period for a profit in the June quarter was 9.4 years – the longest in Cotality’s records since the mid-1990s. For a loss, the median was just 3.5 years.
“That’s particularly relevant now, because 3.5 years ago was effectively the market peak when prices were very high and interest rates were already climbing,” Davidson said. “For some of the buyers at that time, any unforeseen change in circumstances since, such as a job loss, could have resulted in a forced sale at a lower price than expected.”
Houses outperform apartments
Standalone houses continued to outperform apartments in resale performance. In Q2 2025, 9.8% of houses resold at a loss compared to 33.8% of apartments.
“This should not be interpreted as a sign of collapse in the apartment sector, however,” Davidson said. “The tendency for apartments to see less price growth over time always means they’re a greater chance to see gross losses, especially if resold into a weak market.”
Median resale gains were $276,000 for houses and $110,750 for apartments, with similar median losses of around $50,000-$55,000.
Loss rates were similar for owner-occupiers (10.1%) and investors (10.7%), with Davidson noting: “Recent tax changes, together with lower mortgage rates, have eased the pressure on landlords, and the data doesn’t point to any large-scale sell-off.”
Mixed results across the main centres
Christchurch recorded the lowest proportion of loss-making sales among the main centres at 4.9%, compared to 15.9% in Auckland, 13.2% in Tauranga and 11.9% in Wellington.
Median resale gains were highest in Tauranga ($373,500), followed by Auckland ($350,000) and Wellington ($340,000). Christchurch’s lower resale gain of $263,500 reflected its more affordable market.
“In Christchurch, prices didn’t climb to the same heights as Auckland or Wellington during the boom, so there’s been less distance to fall,” Davidson said. “The flip side is that because the market has generally been more affordable, the resale gains tend to be smaller in dollar terms.”
Queenstown leads regional gains
Queenstown continued to deliver strong results, with just 3.6% of sales at a loss and median gains of $565,500.
“Queenstown’s unique mix of limited supply, strong domestic and international demand, and high-end property has underpinned its resilience,” Davidson said.
Rotorua also recorded strong resale gains at $310,000, while Kaipara (17.9% of sales at a loss) and Rangitīkei (20.0%) were among the districts with the weakest resale performance.
Outlook: Confidence key to recovery
Davidson said resale results in the coming months will be closely tied to property value movements, migration, the labour market, and credit conditions.
“Even if property values stay broadly steady in the next few months, the share of loss-making resales could still edge higher, given that reduced seller confidence may just see them more willing to meet the market,” he said.
However, stronger sales activity, tighter stock, and renewed first-home buyer and investor interest could start to improve outcomes – particularly in affordable and supply-constrained regions.
“Keep in mind that the gross profits of $279,000 in Q2 may look large but for many owner-occupiers, this generally won’t be a cash windfall,” Davidson said. “Provided they’re not shifting to a cheaper location or downsizing, that equity will just have to be put straight back into the next purchase.”
See the Cotality NZ report here.
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