Creeping values, longer sales highlight selective, patient demand
New Zealand’s housing market is settling into a phase of slow, selective activity that puts mortgage advisers’ advisory skills front and centre.
February figures from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) show national median prices edging higher while buyers, sellers, and property investors wait for clearer signals on mortgage rates, policy, and the economy.
The national median price rose 3.2% year-on-year to $795,000, with major regions such as Auckland, Canterbury, and Waikato recording their highest February sales counts since 2021. Otago led annual price growth with a 13.2% lift to $755,000, while Canterbury hit a new House Price Index (HPI) record.
Complementing the REINZ data, separate Trade Me figures show the national average asking price has reached about $883,800 in February, up 3.1% on January and 1.7% year-on-year. That is the highest level since early 2024.
Yet properties are taking longer to sell, with median days to sell sitting in the mid‑50s and above long‑run February averages in most regions.
REINZ chief executive Lizzy Ryley (pictured) says the broader trend is one of gradual recovery rather than a sharp upswing.
“The three-month data gives us the clearest picture of the market’s underlying direction,” Ryley said, noting three‑month median prices are up 1.9% nationally to $780,000.
Rates, weather, and election jitters guide buyer behaviour
Ryley points to a trio of forces shaping February activity: weather, interest rates, and the approaching election.
Severe weather has weighed on northern regions such as Northland, while the Reserve Bank’s decision to hold the official cash rate at 2.25% suggests the recent run of falling mortgage rates may be over, keeping first-home buyers cautious about future servicing costs.
Sales volumes rose just 0.3% year-on-year to 6,523, but seasonally adjusted data show a 6.6% lift from January nationwide, with a 3.1% rise outside Auckland. Auction usage increased, with 18.6% of sales nationally going under the hammer and 30% of Auckland deals sold at auction.
Regional splits highlight opportunities and risks for clients
“The housing market has been stable for some time, with buyers and sellers having growing confidence, although this does vary around the country,” Ryley said.
Canterbury and Otago are expected to lead further growth, with Auckland gradually improving, while Wellington and storm‑affected northern markets may take longer to normalise.
Affordability indicators have also moved in a more positive direction, with the national value‑to‑income ratio easing to about 7.2 and mortgage servicing on a typical new loan back near long‑run norms at roughly 42% of gross median household income, although it still takes around 9.6 years for a typical household to save a 20% deposit.
Ryley adds that “The situation in the Middle East is something we are monitoring closely, as it may influence household confidence and the cost-of-living environment in which buyers and sellers make decisions.”
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