Westpac warns flat market, early‑2026 house price softness
New Zealand’s housing market is showing a mix of resilience and softness, with national median prices edging higher in many regions even as overall activity flattens and risks tilt toward further weakness in early 2026, according to the latest data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ).
REINZ’s seasonally adjusted figures for the three months to November 2025 show the market sitting slightly ahead of the same period last year, with national sales counts up 2.4% and the median price fractionally higher by 0.2%. For New Zealand excluding Auckland, sales are up 4.1% and the median is 1.5% higher year-on-year.
“Comparing November 2025 to November 2024 still matters, but looking at the three-month trend helps smooth out monthly ups and downs,” says REINZ Chief Executive Lizzy Ryley (pictured left). “Taken together, the seasonally adjusted figures suggest the market is continuing to edge in the right direction. While the improvement is gradual, the underlying trend remains more positive than it was a year ago.”
Westpac: prices ‘tracking sideways’ despite cheaper debt
Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod (pictured right) says that, on the bank’s own seasonally adjusted view, the market remains essentially flat, with little momentum despite lower borrowing costs and rising stock levels.
“New Zealand’s housing market is continuing to tread water. Sales have flattened off, while prices are tracking sideways,” Ranchhod said.
“In line with the cooling in house sales, prices remain weak. Prices fell 0.3% in November, following a similar sized fall in October. Compared to this time last year, prices are down 0.2%. House prices have essentially been tracking sideways for close to three years now.”
Ranchhod noted that this sluggishness is occurring even as mortgage rates have come down and listings have climbed. On Westpac’s seasonal adjustment, the average number of days to sell was 45.4 in November, “effectively unchanged from last month”, reinforcing the picture of a market where buyers are taking their time.
“The sluggishness in the housing market is notable given the sharp falls in borrowing costs over the past year,” Ranchhod said, pointing out that the number of homes available for sale is now at its highest level in a decade once normal seasonal patterns are accounted for.
Medians up in most regions, but gains uneven
REINZ’s November data shows that on a year-on-year basis, New Zealand’s national median price rose 2.3% to $808,000. Excluding Auckland, the median increased 4.3% to $730,000.
Twelve of the 16 regions reported annual median price gains. Canterbury set a new regional record, with its median up 3.0% year-on-year to $720,000. Territorial authority records were also set in Hawke’s Bay’s Wairoa District at $725,000 (up 16.7%) and Canterbury’s Waimate District at $549,000 (up 6.6%).
“Median sales prices continued to rise across many regions in November, with the national median reaching $808,000 this month. Auckland’s median price is above $1 million ($1,050,000) for the second month in a row, and Canterbury recorded a new high, with the median price hitting $720,000,” Ryley said. “The broader trend indicates that, despite some local variations, the property market remains resilient, with activity nationwide helping to support price growth.”
REINZ’s House Price Index (HPI) for New Zealand is at 3,629 – a 0.2% decrease over the past year and a 0.1% rise month-on-month – and remains 15.1% below its peak. Over the past five years, the average annual HPI compound growth rate has been 1.5%.
Ranchhod’s regional read aligns with this mixed pattern: Auckland and Wellington have seen particular softness, with prices down 1.5% and 2.8% respectively over the past year, while Canterbury, Otago and Southland have all posted gains of around 2–4%, and many other regions have recorded modest increases.
Sales softer, stock builds as buyers stay selective
Despite resilient medians, broader turnover has eased. REINZ reports that national sales volumes fell 5.7% year-on-year in November to 7,268, while sales across New Zealand excluding Auckland dropped 5.3% to 5,034.
Only three regions recorded annual sales increases:
- Northland: up 12.0% to 234 sales
- Waikato: up 2.9% to 768 sales
- Nelson: up 25.8% to 78 sales
Seasonally adjusted figures show national sales down 4.6% month-on-month, slightly more than the raw 4.4% fall. Auckland declined 9.1% on this basis, while the rest of New Zealand was down 3.3%. Northland (+21.6%) and Hawke’s Bay (+5.0%) saw stronger month-on-month gains, while Nelson (-15.7%) and Canterbury (-7.2%) highlighted the uneven nature of the market.
“This November marked only the sixth time in 33 years that New Zealand’s November sales count was below October’s, underscoring how unusual it is for activity to ease at this point in the seasonal cycle," Ryley said. "Despite the slower sales pace, median prices have remained largely resilient, supported by a stable underlying demand.”
New listings rose 10.9% year-on-year to 12,339 nationwide, with New Zealand excluding Auckland up 10.2% to 8,199. National inventory is 4.0% higher than in November 2024, at 35,345 properties.
"First-home buyers and owner-occupiers continue to dominate the market," Ryley said. “With plenty of choice available, some buyers remain cautious and are taking time before deciding to purchase. However, salespeople around the country have reported a growing sense of optimism in the market.
“They’ve also observed that while sales have decreased slightly, some buyers – and some vendors who are selling and buying in the same market – are finding it easier to manage, due to easing interest rates, the November OCR cut, and more flexible lending criteria. These all seem to be contributing to a cautiously optimistic view heading into 2026.”
Ranchhod adds that firm building activity, particularly of townhouses and other medium-density dwellings, combined with slower population growth, is also contributing to the elevated stock levels that are keeping a lid on price momentum.
Outlook: modest growth at best, softness risk early in 2026
Auctions remain a key channel, with 1,337 auction sales in November (18.4% of all sales). In New Zealand excluding Auckland, 663 auction sales accounted for 13.2% of transactions, while Auckland recorded 674 auction sales, representing 30.2% of its total.
Looking ahead, Westpac expects only limited price growth, with risks skewed toward further softness in the early part of next year.
“The RBNZ has signalled that its rate cutting cycle has likely come to an end, and recent weeks have seen longer term interest rates pushing higher,” Ranchhod said. “Against that backdrop, we’ve been expecting only modest house price growth over the year ahead. And at this stage, the risks appear tilted towards continued softness, at least in the early part of 2026.”
Taken together, the REINZ and Westpac readings point to a market where prices are broadly holding, listings are rising, and buyers are taking their time – with the balance of risk now leaning toward a subdued, sideways start to 2026 rather than a strong upswing.
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