Cotality's April 2026 Home Price Index points to stabilization, but Florida leads rate-sensitive markets showing strain
US single-family home prices rose 0.3% year over year and 0.4% month over month in April 2026, according to Cotality, a property information and analytics firm.
The data, released by Cotality as part of its April 2026 Home Price Index, shows that home prices have climbed 0.8% since January 2026, a below-average pace for recent years.
The spring buying season, typically the most active period for price growth, has instead been disrupted by a renewed surge in mortgage rates, a reversal that has offset much of the affordability progress made during the rate-easing period of late 2025.
"Market strength suggests that some buyers remain insulated from mortgage-rate volatility and are supported by substantial home equity and stock market gains," said Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality.
"Overall, fewer markets posted year-over-year price declines in April than in prior months, pointing to continued stabilization across the housing market."
Geographic fault lines widen
The April reading reinforces a theme that has defined the US housing market throughout the first half of 2026: strong regional divergence.
Midwest and Northeast metros are outperforming, while Sun Belt and coastal markets face headwinds from affordability ceilings and a reset in buyer expectations.
Single-family home prices in the United States rose 1.7% year over year in the first quarter of 2026, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI).https://t.co/lVjUUbWPyI
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) May 26, 2026
Among the nation's 100 largest metro areas, San Francisco recorded the highest year-over-year price increase at 8.3%, followed by Newark, N.J., at 7.6%.
On a 3-month basis, Midwest industrial hubs dominated, with St. Louis gaining 4.1%, Kansas City up 4%, and Milwaukee rising 3.6%.
Northeastern cities also featured strongly. Newark posted a 3-month gain of 6.4%, while Rochester, N.Y., Boston, Cambridge, Mass., and Bridgeport, Conn., all saw gains between 4.7% and 5.9%.
The spring homebuying season opened on a split housing market, and that split has only deepened.
New York City's metro area fell 2.3% over the 3-month period through April, with Buffalo, N.Y., down 2.1% and Washington, D.C., off 1.3%. Fresno, Nassau, and Phoenix also posted declines.
Florida tops the watch list
Florida led all states with an annual decline in home prices. The state's top markets, including Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Lakeland-Winter Haven, and Tampa, appear on Cotality's Market Risk Indicators list as among the most at risk for price declines in the next 12 months.
South Dakota fell 3.4% annually, while Hawaii dropped 2.8%, and Washington state slipped 1.5%.
The broader risk picture shows 69 of the 100 largest US metros are currently overvalued, meaning their home price indexes exceed long-term values by more than 10%.
Just seven metros are classified as undervalued — among them Los Angeles, San Jose, and Portland on the West Coast, and New York City in the East.
Looking ahead, the Midwest and Northeast remain the most dependable markets for mortgage origination activity, as mortgage demand in the region continues to outpace the national trend.
Cotality projects annual US home price gains will reach 5.3% year over year by April 2027, though the path depends on whether rates stabilize and supply responds to latent demand.
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