Annual home price growth picked up speed in July, but thin monthly gains and elevated mortgage rates could cap momentum heading into fall
United States home prices climbed 1.9% year over year in July, accelerating from 1.6% in June, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
The 10-City Composite index rose 3.4% annually and the 20-City Composite gained 2.5%, both outpacing the national figure.
Fourteen of the 20 tracked metros posted faster year-over-year appreciation in July than in June, though the monthly reading remains subdued. National prices edged up just 0.1%, well below the pre-pandemic July average of 0.5% recorded between 2015 and 2019.
"July's data indicates that price growth is gaining momentum, albeit unevenly," said Thomas Malone, principal economist at Cotality.
"National appreciation reached 1.9%, outperforming June in most major metros. While prices rose just 0.1% over the month, seller concessions are opening up opportunities for buyers. This may be short-lived, however, with higher mortgage rates continuing to create a moving target for buyers, extending the uphill battle into fall."
A new report from Clever Real Estate found that home prices in all 50 of the largest US metro areas exceeded inflation between 2011 and 2026, with Miami leading the way at nearly 344% growth.https://t.co/NGEm4grL2E
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) September 30, 2026
Midwest and Northeast lead the recovery
Chicago posted the strongest annual gain among tracked cities at 6.9%, followed by New York at 5.8% and Cleveland at 4.2%.
On a monthly basis, Cleveland led with a 1.0% rise, while New York and Chicago each added roughly 0.5%.
Those results stand in sharp contrast to markets across the West and South, where annual prices remain in negative territory. Seattle fell 1.6% year over year, with Las Vegas, Denver, Tampa, Portland and Dallas also recording annual losses.
Eleven metros logged monthly price declines in July, with San Francisco posting the largest drop at 0.6%.
For brokers helping clients navigate where opportunities exist, the data signals a clear shift in leverage. Seller concessions have reached a new peak in a deepening buyer's market, and buyers across much of the country now carry measurably more negotiating power than they did a year ago.
Rate pressures cast a shadow on fall
Across the 16 metros with tier-level indices, low- and high-priced homes averaged flat growth, while middle-tier homes slipped 0.2% for the month.
Chicago was the only major metro to record gains across all three price segments; San Francisco posted declines in each.
With mortgage rates topping 7% for first time since January 2025, the pace at which underperforming Western and Southern markets recover may remain sluggish heading into the new year.
The July figures reinforce a housing market slowly righting itself after months of subdued momentum.
Annual appreciation is trending in the right direction, but weak monthly readings and persistent financing pressures leave the trajectory open to disruption as the fall selling season begins.
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