Confidence data up across the board
Things are looking rosier for Australian consumers and businesses, if today’s data releases from the banking majors are anything to go by.
While still in negative territory, the NAB Business Confidence Index rose to -1 in April, up from -3 in March, suggesting sentiment among firms is stabilising after months of economic uncertainty.
On the consumer side, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index climbed 0.8 points to 88.3, which ANZ linked directly to Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s landslide election victory. Confidence is now 8.1 points higher than the same week a year ago, and above the 2025 average of 86.3.
The series is at its highest level since the RBA’s 25bp rate cut in February,” said ANZ economist Sophia Angala. “Last week’s lift was driven by an improvement in household confidence in the 12-month outlook… The lift may also be supported by the prospect of a 25bp rate cut by the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) at its May meeting.”
ANZ, like the rest of the Big Four cohort, firmly expects another rate cut next week “given moderating inflation, lower-than-expected household spending data last week and the uncertain global backdrop”, said Angala.
State-by-state analysis shows confidence climbing in housing markets across New South Wales, Victoria, and Western Australia, although Queensland and South Australia saw a dip.
A boon for refinancing
Increasing optimism among Australian consumers and businesses spells good news for the refinancing market.
This growing optimism is reflected in the refinancing market, as detailed in the Mortgage Choice Home Loan Report for the March 2025 quarter, which was also released today.
A third (33%) of respondents in the Mortgage Choice report said they’re now more confident to purchase property thanks to the decline in home loan rates – up from just 23% in the previous quarter, and more than double the figure from this time last year.
“Borrowers are breathing easier,” said Mortgage Choice chief executive Anthony Waldron (pictured). “Inflation is easing, rates are softening, and Australians are once again seeing property as their path to financial security.”
