Southern resilience supporting early housing recovery
The latest QV House Price Index shows that average home values across New Zealand fell 0.8% in the three months to the end of October, bringing the national average to $902,020.
Values are unchanged compared with the same time last year and remain 13.9% below the January 2022 peak.
QV National Spokesperson Andrea Rush said the housing market remains broadly flat, with modest southern gains balancing weaker conditions elsewhere.
“Listings and buyer activity have lifted this spring, but it hasn’t yet translated into sustained value growth,” Rush said. “The market is still finding its footing after a long period of economic uncertainty, with confidence slowly returning as interest rates ease.”
By contrast, Cotality NZ data showed two consecutive months of modest value growth, with chief property economist Kelvin Davidson saying the cycle may be turning.
The latest NZHL Property Report by Tony Alexander supports that view, with agents are reporting stronger buyer activity, improving price sentiment, and a noticeable increase in open-home attendance
Main centres see mixed results
Auckland recorded the steepest decline among the main centres, with average values down 2.2% to $1.2 million.
“Although the statistics indicate no real change in the downward trend, there appears to be a slight pick-up in buyer activity, possibly due to recent cuts to interest rates,” said QV Auckland Registered Valuer Hugh Robson.
“Agents are reporting more inquiries, more people at open homes, and more listings coming to the market during October,” Robson said.
Wellington values eased 1.1% over the quarter and 3.3% year-on-year to an average of $809,547.
“First-home buyers are active but remain cautious given the region’s economic and employment conditions,” said QV Wellington Registered Valuer David Cornford. “Well-presented stock is selling well, but poorly presented properties are selling at large discounts.”
Christchurch continues to hold steady
Christchurch remains one of the country’s most stable markets, with average values rising 0.4% in the quarter and 2.4% over the year to $778,000 – now slightly above its January 2022 peak.
“These figures underline the city’s relative stability compared to other main centres,” said QV Christchurch Registered Valuer Michael Tohill. “Christchurch continues its historic trend as a relatively stable real-estate market in a downturn.
“The $1–$2 million market is very active, with good demand and strong sale prices being achieved. Meanwhile, building activity across Christchurch, Selwyn, and Waimakariri remains steady, with home builders reporting a healthy level of forward work well into 2026.”
Southern markets lead quarterly gains
Southern regions again led the way. Dunedin–Taieri posted the country’s strongest rise, up 6.9% for the second consecutive quarter. Invercargill climbed 2.7% and Queenstown gained 1.4%. West Coast districts also performed well, led by Westland (+3.4%) and Buller (+2.8%).
“The region’s markets remain steady, with reasonable demand and buyers active across all main price brackets,” said QV West Coast Registered Valuer Rod Thornton. “Overall values have risen as the upward trend continues, although in areas such as the West Coast, where sales volumes are lower and housing quite varied, statistics can be distorted to a degree.”
Rush said strong local economies and affordability are helping southern markets outperform.
“Regional strength continues to underpin the national picture,” she said. “Invercargill, Dunedin–Taieri, Queenstown, and the West Coast were among the strongest performers this quarter, supported by tourism, the primary sector, and relative affordability across Southland and Otago.”
Hawke’s Bay trends remain uneven
In Hawke’s Bay, Napier home values rose 1.2% to $754,000, while Hastings slipped 0.6% to $774,500.
“First-home buyers remain active in Napier and Hastings, particularly in the $450,000–$700,000 price range,” said QV Hawke’s Bay Registered Valuer Nicola Waldon. “Easing interest rates have given buyers more power. Listings have increased slightly with the arrival of spring, while higher-end properties above $1 million are taking longer to sell.”
Outlook: Steady now, gradual lift ahead
Rush said the overall market is showing early signs of recovery, but momentum remains uneven.
“While interest rate cuts and easier lending conditions are improving sentiment, high living costs and elevated unemployment are still weighing on household confidence,” she said.
QV expects home values to stay broadly stable in the near term, with gradual growth likely to emerge in 2026 as economic conditions improve.
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