First-home buyers and affordable regions drive activity as market steadies
Average home values across New Zealand have fallen 13.1% from their January 2022 peak, according to the latest QV House Price Index, with the national average now sitting at $909,671 – down 0.5% over the past three months and virtually unchanged year-on-year.
QV National Spokesperson Andrea Rush said the market remains subdued overall, with value declines in most major centres offset by pockets of growth in more affordable regions.
“There’s more activity occurring at the lower to mid-value end of the market, where first-home buyers and owner-occupiers remain the most engaged,” Rush said. “These buyers are being supported by relatively stable interest rates, improving access to finance, and a wide range of listings, particularly in larger urban centres.”
Rush said recovery is “uneven and fragile”, with vendors in many areas having to meet the market to secure a sale, while some buyers remain cautious due to economic uncertainty.
Auckland flat, luxury sales outperform
Auckland values slipped 1.2% over the quarter to $1,219,470, 19.7% below the national peak. QV Auckland Registered Valuer Hugh Robson said the city’s market has been stable for months, with “very little price movement” and listings in line with earlier winter months.
Luxury homes are still attracting buyers.
“Barfoot & Thompson sold 51 properties over $2 million and 16 over $3 million in July – their best results since 2021,” Robson said. “Developers are also pressing ahead with new builds across a wide range of suburbs, which is another indicator of underlying market resilience.”
Regional pockets of growth for brokers to watch
Several areas posted quarterly value growth, creating opportunities for brokers working with clients in more affordable or fast-growing markets:
- Queenstown Lakes District: up 2.4% to $1,861,871 — 16.9% above peak.
- Invercargill: up 1.2% to $507,403 — 5.5% above peak.
- Gore: up 5.6% quarterly and 7.8% annually to $442,299.
- West Coast: up 2.9% to $441,854, with some districts now well above 2021 highs.
QV Invercargill registered valuer Andrew Ronald said lower-priced properties remain the most active segment.
“Investor interest is continuing to lift, supported by earlier rental growth, although that has now started to stabilise,” Ronald said.
According to Alexander’s survey, first-home buyers remain the dominant market force, with a net 42% of agents seeing more in-market activity from this group. Investor participation remains muted, with many looking to sell due to rising costs and reduced expectations for capital gains.
Wellington downturn deepens
Wellington values dropped 2.3% over the quarter to $818,274, with annual declines of 4.5%.
QV Wellington Registered Valuer David Cornford said first-home buyers are benefitting from lower interest rates and reduced values, but broader economic pressures – including rising unemployment and household costs – are keeping conditions subdued.
“Falling interest rates have yet to spark market growth, likely because many homeowners have not yet rolled off higher fixed rates,” Cornford said.
What it means for mortgage advisers
The QV data highlights where adviser opportunities may be concentrated heading into spring:
- Target regions with value growth where first-home buyers are active, such as Queenstown, Southland, and parts of the West Coast.
- Highlight affordability shifts in previously higher-priced regions – 13% below peak nationally means more buyers may qualify for finance.
- Prepare for uneven recovery as market conditions vary sharply between districts and property types.
Rush said the next few months will be pivotal.
“With the traditional spring uplift in listings just around the corner, the next few months will be pivotal in determining whether the market begins to tilt more decisively toward recovery,” she said.
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