Tight listings and cautious buyers shape spring outlook
The latest NZHL Property Report by economist Tony Alexander (pictured) reveals a modest lift in buyer presence across New Zealand’s housing market, though activity remains subdued and the market continues to favour buyers.
This comes as national housing stock tightens ahead of spring, with realestate.co.nz reporting 30,430 properties for sale – nearly 2,000 fewer than in June and 0.4% below last year. Despite fewer listings, buyers remain active where vendors are realistic, particularly in the sub-$850,000 bracket.
Buyer interest slowly improving
“Most indicators have improved slightly this month but remain at very weak levels indicative of a market where buyers are in no rush to transact,” Alexander said in the report.
Auction attendance has edged higher, with a net 2% of agents reporting more people at auctions, up from a net 7% seeing fewer attendees last month. Open home activity also showed a slight lift, with a net 8% of agents seeing more visitors, although many agents still reported very limited turnout.
“While the market may be pulling back from a very weak period, there is no solid recovery in momentum as yet,” Alexander said.
Prices still under pressure
House prices remain under downward pressure, with a net 20% of agents reporting price declines, improving from 28% last month and 38% two months ago.
“High listings, weak migration flows, and minimal FOMO are not interacting on average to cause prices to rise,” Alexander said.
Fear of missing out (FOMO) is inching higher but remains muted, with just 11% of agents observing buyer FOMO, up from 9% last month and 5% two months ago.
First-home buyers dominate, investors cautious
First-home buyers remain the primary force in the market. A net 42% of agents report seeing more first-home buyers, up from 39% last month.
“First-home buyers have been the key force in the NZ housing market since the start of 2023, and they remain dominant,” Alexander said.
Investor activity remains subdued, with a net 3% of agents seeing more investors in the market. At the same time, a net 24% of agents are observing more investors looking to sell, reflecting rising costs, regulatory changes, and reduced expectations for capital gains.
“For investors looking to make a purchase, the prime motivation remains the hope of finding a bargain,” Alexander said.
Buyer concerns: finance, employment, and listings
Employment uncertainty and access to finance remain top concerns for buyers. Agent feedback also highlights growing discontent with the type and quality of listings available.
Reflecting this cautious environment, a net 28% of agents say New Zealand remains a buyer’s market, continuing a trend that began in early 2022.
Read the NZHL Property Report in full for more details.
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