Agents report falling prices, nervous investors, and first-home buyers still active
New Zealand’s housing recovery has hit another speed bump, with agents reporting falling prices, thinner open homes, and investors stepping back.
The latest NZHL Property Report, compiled by independent economist Tony Alexander (pictured), shows that “for the third time since early-2023 an upturn in the residential real estate market has paused then gone into reverse.”
Agents across the country say they are seeing fewer people at open homes and auctions as global uncertainty and higher oil prices weigh on confidence.
The findings come as property values edge higher in some markets, but ongoing geopolitical tensions are keeping many buyers cautious despite the improvement.
Buyers cautious but in control
The survey finds a net 28% of agents now believe prices are falling in their area, aligning with recent easing in the REINZ House Price Index. Attendance at auctions and open homes has dropped sharply in the past month, after a strong start to the year.
Fear of missing out has faded. The proportion of agents seeing FOMO among buyers has slipped back towards levels last seen in the downturn of 2022 and early 2023.
Alexander notes that “buyers firmly feel that they can take their time making a purchase” and are prepared to walk away if vendors will not negotiate.
Investor jitters and a deep buyer’s market
Investor demand is where the pullback is most visible. A net 33% of agents report seeing fewer investors in the market, the weakest reading since April 2023. Many existing landlords are looking to sell to fund more expensive retirements or because rising costs and subdued capital gain expectations are eroding returns.
On the buy side, “almost 50% of agents say that investors are not motivated at all to make another purchase.” Combined with subdued offshore interest, that leaves owner-occupiers and first-home buyers driving much of the remaining activity.
Overall, “a strong buyer’s market has been in place since late-2023,” with a net 47% of agents saying buyers hold the strongest hand in negotiations.
For mortgage advisers, the report underscores a window to help committed buyers negotiate harder, structure debt conservatively, and support investors reassessing their portfolios in a more volatile environment.
Stay informed with the latest housing market trends and mortgage insights — subscribe to our free daily newsletter.
