March’s ADP report showed uneven hiring but firmer wages that could support housing demand
Private US employers added 62,000 jobs in March, a better-than-expected result that nonetheless underscores a fragile labor market even as wage growth stayed solid for many workers.
The March ADP National Employment Report, produced with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, showed that “overall hiring is steady, but job growth continues to favor certain industries, including health care.”
“In March, this solid performance was accompanied by a boost in pay gains for job-changers,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.
Health and construction carried the load
ADP’s figures showed private employers added 62,000 jobs in March, with goods‑producing industries up 30,000 and services up 32,000.
Education and health services contributed 58,000 of those positions, while construction added 30,000.
Trade, transportation and utilities shed 58,000 jobs and manufacturing lost 11,000.
“Private sector employment growth was a bit better than expected in March, but health care and construction continued to provide nearly all the momentum,” ADP said in its release.
Small businesses again led hiring, adding 85,000 jobs, while mid‑sized firms lost 20,000 and large employers cut 4,000 positions.
Wages held up, a key factor for housing
Pay for job‑stayers rose 4.5% year over year in March, unchanged for a third month, while job‑changers saw pay gains accelerate to 6.6%, according to ADP’s pay insights.
Earlier this cycle, ADP data showed job‑changer pay running in double digits, suggesting the labor market has cooled but not cracked.
For mortgage and housing professionals, those wage trends have been critical. In 2025, affordability conditions have improved for two consecutive months as a result of lower mortgage rates and continued, strong income growth.
Lenders also expressed cautious optimism that a steadier rate environment and resilient employment could help the mortgage market roar back after the post‑pandemic slowdown.
What it could mean for mortgage demand
ADP’s report arrived ahead of the official Bureau of Labor Statistics March jobs data; economists expect a modest rebound in nonfarm payrolls after February’s 92,000 job loss and an unemployment rate holding at 4.4%.
ADP has historically been an imperfect predictor of the BLS figures, so those forecasts remain unverified until the government release in two days.
The ADP data support the Federal Reserve staying on hold, but it’s not strong enough to force a hike unless inflation also re-accelerates.
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