Rural home prices surged since the pandemic, outpacing income growth and pricing out local buyers
Tired of dense urban centers, record numbers of Americans decamped to rural and suburban areas in search of space, privacy, and—they believed—more affordable housing. Remote work also made the exodus possible. Record-low mortgage rates made it irresistible.
What followed was a housing stampede that transformed rural real estate markets in ways that threaten the affordability that initially drew buyers there.
The affordability math no longer works
Rural homebuyers now need to earn $74,508 annually to afford the median-priced home. That's a 105.8% jump from the pre-pandemic figure of $36,206, according to a new Redfin analysis.
Suburban buyers faced a 90.9% increase, while urban buyers experienced an 87.5% rise. Meanwhile, rural household incomes climbed just 33.3% —a stubborn gap that has created a two-tiered affordability crisis.
The median sale price in rural counties reached $280,900, up 60.5% from $175,000 before the pandemic. Suburban prices rose 48.9%, and urban prices increased 46.2%.
Limited inventory amplified the squeeze. Rural areas, by nature, have only a handful of homes for sale at any given time, meaning competition among buyers drives prices upward in ways city and suburban markets never experience.
Wealthy outsiders reshape local markets
That shift was continuing in 2024, and First American economist Odeta Kushi highlighted how it was an attractive option for many big-city buyers.
"The untethering from the office has certainly contributed to folks feeling like they can maybe move from a more expensive market to a more affordable market," Kushi told Mortgage Professional America.
"And we've been seeing that for some time when we look at the migration statistics of young people. You see out migrations from traditionally more expensive markets like LA and New York to traditionally more—or relatively more—affordable markets in the Sunbelt."
Some of that demand came from affluent out-of-state buyers priced out of coastal markets. In New Hampshire, which saw the steepest affordability deterioration of any state, median rural home prices jumped 88.3%.
"During the pandemic, many buyers came to New Hampshire from out of state—places like New York, Texas, California, and Seattle. They often had larger budgets than locals and were able to pay above the asking price, which helped them win bidding wars and purchase properties in the Lakes Region," said Julia Martinage, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in New Hampshire.
"A lot of those people are now moving back to where they came from and being replaced by locals or people from border states like Massachusetts. I'm seeing a lot of young couples and families moving to rural areas from cities like Nashua and Manchester. They want land, chickens, quiet—a better quality of life."
Yet the damage persists. Local residents now face a market where out-of-town wealth fundamentally reshaped pricing expectations. As the migration reverses, rural communities are left to reckon with persistently unaffordable housing stock and strained local incomes.
Building is the only path forward
Supply could be the answer. "Rural America isn't as affordable as it once was, but the silver lining is that unlike many urban areas, there's still room to build homes," said Asad Khan, Redfin's senior economist.
"Adding more housing can ease the affordability crunch and also make room for more people, which can boost local economies."
New York has taken that hint, investing $50 million in a program to build manufactured housing, which is typically cheaper and quicker to construct. Similar initiatives elsewhere could help close the gap between what rural families earn and what rural homes now cost.
For now, rural America remains the nation's least affordable housing market relative to pandemic trends—a bitter irony for a place that once promised escape from that very problem.
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