Market watchers are split on what the measure would mean for homebuying
Florida’s debate over eliminating property taxes on owner‑occupied homes has already moved beyond campaign rhetoric and into hard numbers, with early modeling suggesting it will push prices higher while deepening divides between owners, renters and first‑time buyers.
A new analysis from Realtor.com’s economic team estimated that wiping out property taxes on homesteads will immediately lift Florida home values by roughly 7% to 9%, increasing the aggregate value of owner‑occupied housing by about $200 billion to $250 billion.
The same work suggested that scrapping only non‑school property taxes can drive a 4% to 5.5% gain, or roughly $110 billion to $150 billion in added value, though that share of school taxes is “a rough guess.”
“It would be a boon to existing property owners,” Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner said.
“But this measure would disproportionately benefit wealthy Floridians at the expense of those who don't own homes, and would make it even harder to break into homeownership because of the increased prices.”
Governor Ron DeSantis has framed property taxes as a de facto rent payment to local government.
“Property taxes effectively require homeowners to pay rent to the government,” he said earlier this year, arguing that revenue could instead come from sales and corporate income taxes and from levies on second homes, rentals and commercial property.
For frontline originators, the move could mean good news, even if it complicates the picture in the long term for first-time buyers. Elizabeth Cassidy, a loan officer with Edge Home Finance, said that removing property taxes on homesteads would boost borrowing power but also fuel further price gains.
“If we get rid of property taxes, everyone's going to be able to qualify for more,” Cassidy told Mortgage Professional America.
“And what are they going to do? They're going to then turn around and buy more of a house when interest rates fall. It never means that people are going to stay in their same budget and just decide that they're going to have a cheaper house payment.”
Cassidy said she saw another potential consequence: a rebalancing away from out‑of‑state investors.
“If we kick property taxes out, I think it'll double up property taxes on people that are buying vacation homes and condos,” she said.
“That’s going to deter them from treating Florida as if it's their playground.”
Skeptics also warned that narrowing Florida’s tax base would leave the state more exposed in a downturn.
Ken Johnson, a housing economist at the University of Mississippi, said the real risk lay in a “black swan” recession that could trigger forced sales of vacation homes just as tourism and consumer spending slowed.
A glut of second‑home listings, he argued, could push prices down while starving public services of revenue.
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