Florida property tax relief, California housing bonds and 7% mortgage rates put affordability on the ballot in key states
Housing affordability goes to the ballot box Tuesday, Nov. 3, as voters in 36 states elect governors and decide six statewide housing measures, with 30-year mortgage rates stuck above 7%.
The strain behind those votes is measurable. The average US household now needs $115,600 a year to cover median housing costs, 75% more than in the third quarter of 2021, according to a briefing by Barbara Denham, lead economist at Oxford Economics.
Only 38% of households clear that bar, down from 53% five years ago.
Rates are the main culprit. Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed average eased to 7.24% last week after a three-year high of 7.40% in mid-October, a squeeze that has already pushed pending home sales to a 12-year low.
Fannie Mae now expects the benchmark rate to hold at 7.5% through 2027.
Which states have made housing a campaign issue?
Florida is the costliest test. Amendment 3 would lift the homestead exemption on non-school property taxes from about $50,000 to $250,000 by 2028, and it needs 60% approval.
Florida Realtors had put $18 million into the campaign by late September.
Oxford ranks Miami and Tallahassee among the metros where affordability fell hardest since 2021.
Condo buyers in the state face a separate overhaul. For loan applications dated on or after Aug. 3, Fannie Mae retired its Limited Review process.
Established condo projects must now pass a Full Review of the association’s finances or qualify for a waiver, according to Fannie Mae Lender Letter LL-2026-03.
The change also ended the remaining Florida-specific geographic restrictions in Fannie Mae’s condo guidelines.
Republican gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds, a congressman, argued at a hearing earlier this year that Fannie Mae’s condo lending rules disadvantaged Florida buyers.
State rules have tightened as well. Since Jan. 1, Florida condo associations with 25 or more units must post official records online, and buyers have seven days instead of three to cancel a purchase.
California voters face an $11.25 billion housing bond, a measure funding second mortgages worth up to 17% of a new home’s price, and a permitting overhaul.
Four of Oxford’s five least affordable metros are in California, and each requires household income above $250,000.
In Texas, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott pledges to cut more than $16,000 from the cost of a new home. Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa would curb corporate purchases of single-family homes. Texas metros posted among the mildest affordability declines in Oxford’s study.
Housing also features in governor races in Colorado, Michigan, Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
Jacy Bloom, Owner and Mortgage Broker at Bloom Mortgage Solutions, says new condo financing requirements are pushing more buyers toward non-QM loans as more buildings fall outside conventional lending guidelines. https://t.co/wxngjhImnB
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) November 2, 2026
What the vote means for mortgage brokers
Washington has offered less. The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act became law without President Donald Trump’s signature. Its limits on large investors buying single-family homes take effect in January.
Most voters doubt the midterms will improve the housing market, with 63% telling Clever Real Estate as much in September.
Some brokers saw the squeeze coming.
“I will come out on record and tell you that rates at the end of this year will be higher than they are today,” Amir Nurani, broker-owner at Left Coast Leaders in California, told Mortgage Professional America in June.
Oxford expects affordability to keep eroding before it stabilizes in 2028.
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