Survey shows expectations colliding with cautious rate forecasts
Most Americans planning to buy a home in 2026 are still anchored to a mortgage-rate world that no longer exists, even as forecasters point to a slow, uneven thaw rather than a return to pandemic-era lows.
A new survey of 1,000 would-be 2026 buyers from Best Interest Financial and Clever Real Estate found that 94% would change their plans if rates do not fall below 6% this year, despite major forecasts that largely keep 30-year fixed rates around that level through 2026.
“Unless the economy clearly breaks or inflation decisively rolls over, rates are more likely to hover in the low- to mid-6% range rather than fall meaningfully below it,” said John Donikian, vice president at Best Interest Financial.
Two-thirds of respondents believed they would personally qualify for a rate under 6% if they apply now, including 25% who still expected a rate below 4%. Nearly two-thirds said they would only accept a rate below 6%, and 59% said mortgage rates mattered more than home prices in their decision.
Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.11% for the week ending February 5, 2026, barely changed from 6.10% a week earlier and well below 6.89% a year ago.
Buyers want rates the market may not deliver
Industry outlooks largely back the idea of a “high-5s to mid-6s” world, not a return to 3% money. Fannie Mae projects 30-year mortgage rates drifting toward the high-5% range by late 2026, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects rates to remain in a 6–6.5% band amid persistent deficits and a 10-year Treasury yield above 4%.
“The most underrated factor is bond market sentiment,” Donikian said. “How investors feel about growth and inflation expectations matters more than what the Fed said at a press conference.”
United States employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January, the worst start to a year since 2009, fueling debate over whether the Federal Reserve will move toward rate cuts as labor market risks intensify.https://t.co/4VKhY2dkaC
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) February 6, 2026
Stress, delays and appetite for longer loans
Roughly two-thirds of surveyed buyers said rates delayed their purchase, 58% said current levels made homeownership unattainable, and 38% said a 50-year mortgage with lower payments would be the only way they could afford to buy.
Many policy experts criticized the Trump administration's idea for 50-year government-backed loans, describing it as a “band‑aid” that does not address supply constraints.
Nearly All 2026 buyers in the survey said they would adjust if rates stay above 6%, most often by delaying, downsizing or shifting to cheaper markets.
Stay updated with the freshest mortgage news. Get exclusive interviews, breaking news, and industry events in your inbox, and always be the first to know by subscribing to our FREE daily newsletter.
