Agents report rising fear, stalled listings as rates jump back above 6.5%
The spring selling season that many lenders hoped would reset the US housing market instead appeared to be stalling under the weight of the Iran war, renewed rate volatility and weakening confidence among buyers and sellers.
According to the first‑quarter CNBC Housing Market Survey, roughly a third of participating agents said their buyers’ top worry has been the broader economy, while another third pointed to mortgage rates – up sharply from late last year.
Only a small share cited prices as the primary concern, even though nearly three in 10 agents reported that home prices have risen in their markets.
“They’re fearful of the war, they’re fearful of gas prices, [for] their job security,” said Faith Harmer, an agent in the Las Vegas metropolitan area.
Buyers who have been encouraged by sub‑6% mortgage quotes in February pulled back once rates climbed again.
The average 30‑year fixed rate hit a low of 5.99% the day before the Iran conflict escalated and then moved back above 6.5%, leaving affordability little improved and pushing more contracts to cancellation.
“Buyers that were on the fence and deciding to buy are now on the fence and going the other direction, saying, ‘I’m not going to buy,’” said Eric Bramlett, an Austin, Texas agent.
In the first quarter, almost a third of agents in the CNBC poll said their listings sat more than six weeks, and more than half reported at least one contract that fell apart.
Sellers, too, appeared to be rethinking their timing.
“We’ve had two sellers who were planning on listing in May already decide, ‘Let’s hold, let’s search later in the summer for our next home to buy, and then we’ll try and list in the fall,’” said Boston‑area agent Dana Bull.
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Rates and sentiment moved in the wrong direction
Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the benchmark 30‑year fixed averaging 6.38% in late March and then 6.46% in early April, its highest level in nearly seven months, as the war pushed oil prices and inflation expectations higher.
This week’s calendar includes a key data point for the Federal Reserve, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics scheduled to release March’s consumer price index (CPI) on Friday, April 10.
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Investors are watching to see whether the Middle East conflict has pushed US inflation higher. The annual CPI rate was 2.4% in February, down from 3% in September, but economists surveyed by FactSet expect March inflation to tick up to 3.1%.
“I can foresee scenarios where we would need to reduce rates… if the labor market deteriorates significantly,” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland president Beth Hammack said.
“Or I could see where we might need to raise rates if inflation stays persistently above our target.”
In an interview with Mortgage Professional America, Fairview Lending executive Glen Weinberg called the combination of war‑driven inflation, economic anxiety and rate volatility “the perfect storm for housing,” warning that the spring selling season would be “immensely impacted” by higher borrowing costs and skittish consumers.
Brokers weigh war risk against pockets of resilience
Some brokers still pointed to resilient underlying demand.
A separate agent survey last year found many realtors remained optimistic about longer‑term prospects, even as affordability and economic uncertainty topped their list of concerns.
For now, first‑quarter feedback suggests a market tilting toward stalemate rather than collapse: fewer price cuts than late 2025, but more listings languishing and more would‑be movers choosing to wait.
It leaves mortgage professionals working to reset expectations with rate‑sensitive borrowers while watching a war, a bond market and a central bank that none of them controls.
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