TransUnion saw mortgage delinquencies drifting up from historic lows into 2026
Mortgage delinquencies are expected to inch higher in 2026 as affordability pressures and softer labour markets test borrowers, according to TransUnion’s latest consumer credit outlook.
The projections point to a slow turn in the credit cycle rather than a sharp deterioration, but one that mortgage professionals are already watching closely.
In its 2026 Consumer Credit Forecast, TransUnion projected the share of US mortgages 60 days or more past due to reach 1.65% by December 2026, an 11‑basis‑point increase from 2025, driven in part by a “modest rise in unemployment.”
By contrast, serious credit card delinquencies are expected to remain almost flat at 2.57%, even as balances grow just 2.3% year over year – the smallest annual increase in more than a decade.
“Delinquency rates across most credit products are expected to see slight increases, which is not surprising given the unsettled economic environment,” Michele Raneri, vice president and head of US research and consulting at TransUnion, said.
“The growth in serious delinquency rates remains measured, and consumers appear to be managing their finances reasonably well. We’ll continue to monitor these trends closely to determine whether this signals a broader improvement in consumer credit health.”
Credit card balance growth is expected to cool sharply from the double‑digit gains seen in 2022 and 2023, with TransUnion citing both consumer caution and tighter underwriting.
“After elevated credit card balance growth over the last 5 years, credit card balance growth is expected to moderate driven by both measured spend growth by consumers and prudent credit extension by lenders,” Paul Siegfried, senior vice president and credit card business leader at TransUnion, said.
“While economic pressures remain, this trend suggests households are managing credit more responsibly – a favorable sign as we move into 2026.”
TransUnion noted that its outlook rested on assumptions of inflation running near 2.45%, unemployment edging up to 4.5% and multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts easing borrowing costs.
Those assumptions remain uncertain and could shift if growth slows more abruptly or job losses accelerate.
Historically low mortgage delinquency rates “could drift upward” in line with TransUnion’s projections, while consumer surveys showed elevated anxiety about home prices and the risk of a downturn. A Clever Offers survey revealed that 40% share of buyers and sellers are worried about a potential crash.
Broader credit stress has begun to touch even super‑prime borrowers, with missed payments rising and more households “relying on revolving credit to manage persistent cost‑of‑living pressures.”
Meanwhile, US household debt continued its steady climb in the third quarter of 2025, reaching a record $18.59 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest Household Debt and Credit Report.
The data, drawn from the New York Fed’s Consumer Credit Panel, highlighted a $197 billion increase from the previous quarter, with mortgage balances accounting for the lion’s share of the growth.
Mortgage balances rose by $137 billion to $13.07 trillion, while new mortgage originations ticked up to $512 billion for the quarter.
Delinquency rates remained elevated but largely stable, with 4.5% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency—levels not seen since early 2020, but still well below the 11% peak during the 2009 financial crisis.
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