Analysts see rates hovering near 6% as housing slowly thaws
Mortgage borrowers who endured 2023’s 8% peak and 2025’s stubbornly high costs finally looked poised for some relief in 2026, but most forecasts still point to a market defined by caution rather than a return to the pandemic boom.
After two years of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening and a sharp run‑up in Treasury yields, Bankrate projects that the average 30‑year fixed mortgage rate would sit near 6.1% in 2026. That's down modestly from late 2025 but well above the sub‑3% levels that fueled the pandemic refi wave.
The forecast called for a potential low around 5.7% and a high near 6.5%, reflecting a choppy path as inflation data and Fed policy continue to jolt bond markets.
“I expect the average 30-year fixed rate to fall below 6% for the first time since the summer of 2022,” Ted Rossman, Bankrate senior industry analyst, said.
“It could go as low as 5.5%, given anticipated Fed rate cuts and a recession scare. But stubbornly high inflation readings and rumblings of a less independent Fed could apply upward pressure at other times of the year. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate should bounce around 6% – sometimes a little lower, sometimes a little higher – throughout much of 2026.”
Market veterans are quick to stress how dependent those numbers are on the broader economy. Mortgage Bankers Association economists, for instance, expect 30‑year mortgage rates to hold in a narrow 6–6.5% range over the next several years as the Fed neared the end of its cutting cycle in 2026, with 10‑year Treasury yields staying above 4%.
For would‑be first‑time buyers, slightly lower rates and slower home price growth are expected to ease conditions only marginally.
“Slightly lower rates and slower price growth should improve affordability a little, which could bring more buyers into the market,” Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS, said. “[2026] is still going to be a transition year, however, and homebuyers and sellers are still going to be cautious.”
For the two‑week period ending January 2, 2026, total mortgage application volume fell 9.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis from two weeks earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.https://t.co/m70PXM3ZeD
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) January 7, 2026
Other housing analysts also see a restrained path lower. Redfin and others expect 30‑year mortgage rates to remain in the low‑6% range in 2026 even with further Fed cuts, warning that borrowing costs might only “ease slightly” rather than tumble.
Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale said rates are still “expected to be low enough to offset price gains, causing the monthly cost of buying a home to drop in 2026 for the first time since 2020 even as home prices rise.”
Even modest declines could matter for existing homeowners who locked in loans above 7% in late 2023.
A borrower with a $400,000 mortgage at 7.25% faced a principal‑and‑interest payment of about $2,729; if rates in 2026 dipped to 6%, a refinance could have cut that figure to roughly $2,398, saving more than $300 a month.
For millions who secured 30‑year fixed loans near 3% in 2020 and 2021, the calculus remains very different. Many of those borrowers appear likely to stay put, constraining inventory even if rates edged toward 5.5% and reinforcing a slow, uneven recovery from what some economists described as a “housing recession” that began in 2022.
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