A surprising gap in government data leaves billions in property risk
More than one in four American homes face severe climate threats that could devastate property values and force dramatic increases in insurance costs, according to a new analysis released by Realtor.com.
The report found 26% of US homes—representing $12.7 trillion in real estate value—are exposed to severe or extreme risks from flooding, wildfire or hurricane winds. The findings highlight how climate change is reshaping housing markets nationwide and creating financial burdens for millions of homeowners.
“Climate risks are no longer a distant threat for US housing—they are a present reality that put a large chunk of US real estate value at risk,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.
Flood risks pose the most underestimated danger, threatening nearly 6 million homes worth $3.4 trillion over the next 30 years. The analysis found 2 million more homes face severe flooding than those identified in federal flood hazard zones, largely because government maps fail to account for heavy rainfall and climate change effects.
New York leads metros with the largest gap between federal flood designations and actual risk, with $95.3 billion in additional property exposure. Los Angeles follows at $65.6 billion and San Francisco at $54.9 billion.
Hurricane wind damage threatens 18.3% of US homes valued at nearly $8.0 trillion. Fourteen major metros across Louisiana, Florida, South Carolina, and Texas—including Miami, Houston, and New Orleans—see every home exposed to severe wind risk. Homeowners in these areas face hurricane deductibles that can reach $20,000 before insurance coverage begins.
Wildfire exposure, while geographically concentrated, affects 5.6% of homes worth $3.2 trillion. California accounts for nearly 40% of this total at $1.8 trillion in property value. The state’s insurance crisis has forced its FAIR Plan, designed as last-resort coverage, to grow 289% since 2021 to $650 billion in total exposure.
Insurance costs reflect these mounting risks. Miami homeowners now pay annual premiums equal to 3.7% of their home’s market value—the highest ratio among the nation’s 100 largest metros. New Orleans follows at 3.6%, with Florida cities dominating expensive insurance markets.
“Climate risk and insurance are not usually a top consideration for home shoppers balancing budgets against still-high home prices and mortgage rates, but these factors already shape ongoing housing costs and affordability,” Hale said.
The analysis used data from First Street Foundation and Insurify to assess climate risks and insurance costs across major metropolitan areas.
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