New data pointed to renters staying put as multifamily supply slows
RealPage’s latest year‑end review suggests that the United States multifamily market in 2026 would be defined less by a glut of new units and more by renters choosing to stay put as owning a home remain out of reach for many.
The company’s analysis points to a sector that has absorbed a major supply wave in 2025 but now faces the risk of undersupply as construction starts pull back.
“Data indicates that despite the influx of approximately 500,000 new units delivered in 2025, strong wage growth and cooling inflation have supported robust absorption,” said Carl Whitaker, chief economist at RealPage.
“However, RealPage sees an undersupply challenge beginning to reemerge as early as late 2026, given that new starts activity has fallen to its lowest level since 2012 due to elevated interest rates and construction financing challenges.”
RealPage estimates that new multifamily deliveries in 2026 could fall to roughly 300,000 units, “well below the level the National Multifamily Housing Council estimates is required to satisfy demand through 2035.”
Renters stay put as ownership gap widens
Whitaker said the sector is behaving “exactly as fundamental economics would predict.”
High‑supply markets have seen “continued rent contraction with deep concessions being offered to help absorb saturated lease‑up inventories,” while lower‑supply regions “continue to trend ahead of the national average, with limited slack in available units.”
He added that “the considerable spread between cost of ownership vs. the cost of renting has translated to fewer move-outs to single family homes.”
Earlier analysis from RealPage showed that renter retention has approached an all‑time high as the current cost of renting is significantly less expensive than homeownership.
RealPage’s broader review found that wage growth across much of the market‑rate renter base has outpaced rent growth, pushing rent‑to‑income ratios “to [their] healthiest level in nearly a decade.”
That pattern, combined with mortgage rates holding above 6%, reinforces the gap between typical multifamily rents and mortgage payments.
From oversupply to emerging shortfall
RealPage forecasts that “a growing number of markets” would shift from oversupply toward more balanced conditions in the second half of 2026 as the construction wave fades. The 300,000‑unit delivery figure sits well below what industry groups believe is needed to meet long‑term demand for new apartments.
The company’s outlook places mortgage professionals in a market where renters remain financially resilient but are less likely to trade leases for mortgages. Unless rates fall meaningfully or incomes surge, renting is set to remain the cheaper option for many households in 2026, and the multifamily side of the housing market, not ownership, looks poised to capture most of that demand.
Meanwhile, a Clever Offers study revealed that 53% of Americans doubt they’ll ever own their dream home. Similarly, according to the Knightvest Capital’s latest Multifamily Renter Sentiment Report, a growing number of renters choose to stay put and embrace apartment living as a long-term lifestyle.
On the other hand, nearly half of renters in the US expect to buy a home within the next four years, according to new research from global data and technology company Experian.
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